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ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.94: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

ARKO Petroleum Corp. is a wholesale fuel distribution company supplying ~2.0 billion gallons annually to ~3,500 locations across 30+ U.S. states via three segments: Wholesale (cost-plus dealer supply), Fleet Fueling (cardlock/fuel cards), and GPMP (exclusive supply to ARKO... Read more

$20.94+1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#12 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield9.55%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $19.50Target $21.29(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$22.40+7.0%5 analysts
$21.29our TP
$20.94price
$22.40mean
$20
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.94: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — ARKO Petroleum Corp.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-6.9% upside)
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.6
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA6.8
Profit Mgn0.6%
ROE
Rev Growth-0.2%
Beta
Dividend9.55%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerARKO Parent41%
    10-K Item 1A: 'ARKO Parent is our most significant customer and accounted for approximately 41% of our revenue in the year ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.3
Operating Margin
0.6
Moat
3.2
Current Ratio
4.1
Piotroski F
4.4
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
3.0
Quality Rank
3.3
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $17.65Resistance $21.72

Price Targets

$20
$21
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.94: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $19.50. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.29 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $19.50. Stop-loss: $19.50.

What are the risks of investing in APC?

Target reached (-6.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is APC overvalued or undervalued?

ARKO Petroleum Corp. trades at a P/E of 27.6 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APC?

9 analysts cover APC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $22.

What does ARKO Petroleum Corp. do?ARKO Petroleum Corp. is a wholesale fuel distribution company supplying ~2.0 billion gallons annually to ~3,500...

ARKO Petroleum Corp. is a wholesale fuel distribution company supplying ~2.0 billion gallons annually to ~3,500 locations across 30+ U.S. states via three segments: Wholesale (cost-plus dealer supply), Fleet Fueling (cardlock/fuel cards), and GPMP (exclusive supply to ARKO Parent retail stores). Completed its IPO in February 2026; ARKO Parent (majority stockholder) accounted for 41% of 2025 revenue.

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