A government-services franchise trading at 8 times forward earnings with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak offers surface-level value appeal, but business quality below the minimum acceptable threshold and 81% revenue dependence on a single government customer make this an exit candidate rather than a hold.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Minimum Threshold→Stable
- Federal Government Revenue Concentration→Stable
- Steady Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 25, 2025
Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Specialty Business Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.07: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Amentum Holdings provides engineering and technology solutions to U.S. and allied government agencies via two segments—Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions—employing approximately 50,000 people across more than 70 countries. U.S. federal government contracts... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.07: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About Amentum Holdings, Inc.
About Amentum Holdings, Inc.
Amentum Holdings reported $47.1 billion in backlog as of October 3, 2025, with 81% of fiscal year 2025 revenues derived from direct U.S. federal government contracts spanning the Department of Energy, Intelligence Community, NASA, and the Department of War. The company formed in September 2024 through a merger of legacy Amentum and Jacobs Solutions' Critical Mission Solutions business, employing approximately 50,000 people across more than 70 countries, with 25% of staff positioned internationally.
Amentum earns revenue under three contract types: cost-plus-fee (63% of fiscal year 2025 revenues), fixed-price (24%), and time-and-materials (13%). The cost-plus-fee structure limits inflation exposure for most contracts, though fixed-price contracts carry overrun risk. The Digital Solutions segment delivers intelligence analytics, cybersecurity, C5ISR engineering, and digital modernization, while the Global Engineering Solutions segment covers environmental remediation, nuclear services, space operations, and research, development, test and evaluation. International positions include long-standing contracts with the UK Ministry of Defence, the UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, and the Australian Department of Defence, with the AUKUS trilateral security partnership named in the 10-K as a growth area. Primary competitors include Booz Allen Hamilton, Leidos Holdings, CACI International, Parsons Corporation, and KBR.
Show full overview
Amentum's revenues depend on U.S. federal government appropriations, and congressional failure to enact a budget or raise the debt ceiling could delay new awards, reduce backlog, and compress cash flows — a risk explicitly detailed in the 10-K. The company's contracts are substantially all subject to cancellation at government convenience, and the Defense Contract Audit Agency holds authority to conduct cost reviews that could result in retroactive revenue adjustments and payment disallowances. Suspension or debarment from contracting with key agencies including the Department of War, Intelligence Community, NASA, or DOE would be material to financial results.
See also: Industrials · Specialty Business Services
From Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-27Recent Developments — Amentum Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Amentum Partners with Aiken Corporation for New Nonprofit Village — fiscal.ai Oct 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Amentum Opens Its Global Nuclear Headquarters in Oak Ridge, Tennessee; Innovative Hub To Deliver Advanced Engineering An — benzinga Oct 8, 2026 positive
- NEWS BNP Paribas Upgrades Amentum Holdings to Neutral, Lowers Price Target to $20 — benzinga Oct 6, 2026 negative
- NEWS Amentum Joint Venture Selected As Preferred Supplier By Sellafield Ltd For Up To $2.78B Asset Care And Asset Creation Pr — benzinga Sep 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS Amentum Selected For Strategic Positions On Two UK Energy Frameworks Awarded By Scottish And Southern Electricity Networ — benzinga Sep 1, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-27T12:03:41Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government81%10-K Item 1A: 'The U.S. federal government represented 81% of our revenues for the year ended October 3, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Revenue shrinking — -2.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.07: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77. Prior stop was $20.63. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $25.52 (+15.6% upside). Prior stop was $20.63. Stop-loss: $20.63.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (81.0%); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
Amentum Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.6 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover AMTM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $29.
What does Amentum Holdings, Inc. do?Amentum Holdings provides engineering and technology solutions to U.S. and allied government agencies via two...
Amentum Holdings provides engineering and technology solutions to U.S. and allied government agencies via two segments—Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions—employing approximately 50,000 people across more than 70 countries. U.S. federal government contracts accounted for 81% of fiscal year 2025 revenues, with $47.1 billion in backlog as of October 3, 2025.