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Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Business Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.75: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.86; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Amentum is a global advanced engineering and technology solutions provider with two segments (Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions), serving U.S. and allied government agencies in energy, intelligence, space, defense, and civilian markets. The U.S. federal... Read more

$22.75+33.8% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#20 of 21 Specialty Business Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield11.86%
Stop $21.92Target $30.29(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$34.82+53.0%11 analysts
$30.29our TP
$22.75price
$34.82mean
$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.75: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.86; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Amentum Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (81.0%)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.7
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA9.1
Profit Mgn1.0%
ROE2.9%
Rev Growth-0.4%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.86bearish
IV61%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government81%
    10-K Item 1: 'The U.S. federal government represented 81% of our revenues for the year ended October 3, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.0
Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
6.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.7
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Revenue shrinking — -0.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.4
Declining revenue: -0%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.5
Roe
1.0
Operating Margin
1.6
Roa
1.9
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.4
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 443% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.60Resistance $28.54

Price Targets

$22
$30
A.Upside+33.1%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMTM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.75: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.86; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $21.92. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMTM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.29 (+33.8% upside). Prior stop was $21.92. Stop-loss: $21.92.

What are the risks of investing in AMTM?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (81.0%); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is AMTM overvalued or undervalued?

Amentum Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 37.7 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMTM?

17 analysts cover AMTM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Amentum Holdings, Inc. do?Amentum is a global advanced engineering and technology solutions provider with two segments (Digital Solutions and...

Amentum is a global advanced engineering and technology solutions provider with two segments (Digital Solutions and Global Engineering Solutions), serving U.S. and allied government agencies in energy, intelligence, space, defense, and civilian markets. The U.S. federal government represented 81% of fiscal 2025 revenues, supported by $47.1 billion of backlog and ~50,000 employees in 70+ countries.

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