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Alumis Inc. (ALMS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.52: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing TYK2 inhibitors: envu (envudeucitinib), a second-generation allosteric inhibitor with positive Phase 3 data in plaque psoriasis (Jan 2026) and Phase 2b ongoing in SLE, plus A-005, a CNS-penetrant TYK2 inhibitor in... Read more

$21.52+61.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#78 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-7.67%
Stop $20.02Target $34.71(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$39.90+85.4%10 analysts
$34.71our TP
$21.52price
$39.90mean
$55

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.52: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, news boost analyst cluster(5), earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Alumis Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(5) detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: envu
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.8), Material insider selling (125 sells, 0.03% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-7.2
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA-5.1
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-64.6%
Rev Growth-90.0%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV91%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineenvu
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to achieve profitability in the future is dependent upon obtaining regulatory approval for and successfully commercializing our most advanced candidate, envu'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
5.0

Volatile — 7.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Short Interest
1.9
Days To Cover
2.9
News Risk
3.0
Put Call
10.0
High short interest justified: 16%High IV: 91%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Rule Of 40
3.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.0
Current Ratio
5.5
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -2461% of revenueNo competitive moatRule of 40: -2551 (fail)Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(5)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.53Resistance $28.31

Price Targets

$20
$35
A.Upside+61.3%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.8), Material insider selling (125 sells, 0.03% of cap)
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALMS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.52: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 4.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $20.02. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.71 (+61.3% upside). Prior stop was $20.02. Stop-loss: $20.02.

What are the risks of investing in ALMS?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: envu; Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.8), Material insider selling (125 sells, 0.03% of cap).

Is ALMS overvalued or undervalued?

Alumis Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALMS?

17 analysts cover ALMS with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $40.

What does Alumis Inc. do?Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing TYK2 inhibitors: envu (envudeucitinib), a...

Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing TYK2 inhibitors: envu (envudeucitinib), a second-generation allosteric inhibitor with positive Phase 3 data in plaque psoriasis (Jan 2026) and Phase 2b ongoing in SLE, plus A-005, a CNS-penetrant TYK2 inhibitor in Phase 1. The company has no approved products and no revenue.

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