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ALMSAlumis Inc.Sell4.9·$18.68-1.61%
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Alumis Inc. (ALMS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.68: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 11.28; Below-average business quality.

Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing TYK2 inhibitors: envu (envudeucitinib), a second-generation allosteric inhibitor with positive Phase 3 data in plaque psoriasis (Jan 2026) and Phase 2b ongoing in SLE, plus A-005, a CNS-penetrant TYK2 inhibitor in... Read more

$18.68+87.0% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#99 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-8.54%
Stop $17.95Target $34.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 7.7:1
Analyst target$40.10+114.7%10 analysts
$34.89our TP
$18.68price
$40.10mean
$55

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.68: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 11.28; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Alumis Inc.

Generated 2026-06-09T22:11:39Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202664d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: envu
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-6.4
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA-4.4
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-64.6%
Rev Growth-90.0%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C11.28bearish
IV118%elevated
Max Pain$34+82.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineenvu
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to achieve profitability in the future is dependent upon obtaining regulatory approval for and successfully commercializing our most advanced candidate, envu'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 5.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Short Interest
1.9
Max Pain Risk
7.0
High short interest justified: 16%Elevated put/call: 11.28High IV: 118%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
5.0

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Rule Of 40
3.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.0
Current Ratio
5.5
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -2461% of revenueNo competitive moatRule of 40: -2551 (fail)Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.3
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 26)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 7.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.51Resistance $25.39

Price Targets

$18
$35
A.Upside+86.8%
A.R:R7.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALMS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.68: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 11.28; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.95. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.89 (+87.0% upside). Prior stop was $17.95. Stop-loss: $17.95.

What are the risks of investing in ALMS?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: envu; Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is ALMS overvalued or undervalued?

Alumis Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -6.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALMS?

17 analysts cover ALMS with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $40.

What does Alumis Inc. do?Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing TYK2 inhibitors: envu (envudeucitinib), a...

Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing TYK2 inhibitors: envu (envudeucitinib), a second-generation allosteric inhibitor with positive Phase 3 data in plaque psoriasis (Jan 2026) and Phase 2b ongoing in SLE, plus A-005, a CNS-penetrant TYK2 inhibitor in Phase 1. The company has no approved products and no revenue.

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