Alumis Inc. (ALMS) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.52: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 8.29; Below-average business quality.
Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing two TYK2 inhibitors: envudeucitinib (envu) in Phase 3 for plaque psoriasis with positive topline results in Q1 2026 and NDA filing planned for H2 2026, and A-005 in Phase 1 for neuroinflammatory diseases. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.52: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 8.29; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductenvu10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to achieve profitability in the future is dependent upon obtaining regulatory approval for and successfully commercializing our most advanced candidate, envu'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Volatile — 5.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.52: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 3.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 8.29; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $21.84. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $33.41 (+42.3% upside). Prior stop was $21.84. Stop-loss: $21.84.
Concentration risk — Product: envu; Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (131 sells, 0.05% of cap).
Alumis Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover ALMS with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $38.
What does Alumis Inc. do?Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing two TYK2 inhibitors: envudeucitinib (envu) in Phase 3...
Alumis is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing two TYK2 inhibitors: envudeucitinib (envu) in Phase 3 for plaque psoriasis with positive topline results in Q1 2026 and NDA filing planned for H2 2026, and A-005 in Phase 1 for neuroinflammatory diseases. The company has no approved products and no revenue.