Almonty offers 137% upside to the analyst target and a 38% ROE on a sharp revenue ramp, but the stock is 64% off its high in capitulation with negative cash conversion and a commodity-price-driven earnings base.
Thesis pillars
- Large Analyst Upside→Stable
- Commodity Price Earnings Risk↓Deteriorating
- Revenue Ramp↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026
Almonty Industries Inc. (ALM) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.69 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.7× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.12× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
Almonty Industries Inc. engages in mining, processing, and shipping of tungsten concentrates. The company explores for tin and tungsten deposits. It holds 100% interests in the Canada, Korea, Portugal, Spain, and the United States projects and mines. The company is headquartered... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.69 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.7× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.12× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 2d<=7d and materials cycle peak fwd=5.7x,ratio=0.12x. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Almonty Industries Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Arctic Securities Lowers Price Target for ALM Equity — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS B. Riley Securities Maintains Buy on Almonty Indus, Lowers Price Target to $20 — benzinga Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS B. Riley Lowers Price Target on Almonty Industries to $20 From $25 — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS Bank of America Analyst Commentary on Almonty Industries — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Almonty Industries Inc. Hosts Analyst/Investor Day — fiscal.ai Oct 20, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:54:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $8.69 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.7× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.12× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $8.14. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $20.64 (+137.5% upside). Prior stop was $8.14. Stop-loss: $8.14.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 5.7× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.12× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.
Almonty Industries Inc. trades at a P/E of 48.3 (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts rate ALM, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 12 analysts publish price targets averaging $24.
What does Almonty Industries Inc. do?Almonty Industries Inc. engages in mining, processing, and shipping of tungsten concentrates. The company explores for...
Almonty Industries Inc. engages in mining, processing, and shipping of tungsten concentrates. The company explores for tin and tungsten deposits. It holds 100% interests in the Canada, Korea, Portugal, Spain, and the United States projects and mines. The company is headquartered in Dillon, Montana.