Nexa Resources is a metals and mining company with extremely attractive valuation metrics and 42% revenue growth, but three consecutive earnings misses and a current price already exceeding analyst consensus targets make it a high-risk hold rather than a compelling entry.
Thesis pillars
- Price Above Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
- Deep Value Metrics→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days
Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.43, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.34× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 6.9%.
Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Mining and Smelting. It produces metallic zinc, zamac, gold, sulfuric acid and zinc oxide, as well as by-products, such as... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.43, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.34× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 6.9%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 113d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=3.5x,ratio=0.34x. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Nexa Resources S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS NEXA RESOURCES SA ($NEXA) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA) Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS NEXA Q3'26 Earnings: EPS estimate is 0.61 USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Nexa Resources SA expected to post earnings of 69 cents a share - Earnings Preview - TradingView — TradingView Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS NEXA or AUGO: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 20, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:29:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Quality Signals
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.43, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.34× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 6.9%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%. Analyst target $12.21 (+6.9%), stop $10.63 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $12.21 (+6.9% upside). Analyst target $12.21 (+6.9%), stop $10.63 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $10.63.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.34× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Thin upside margin: 6.9%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
Nexa Resources S.A. trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 3.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
11 analysts rate NEXA, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $14.
What does Nexa Resources S.A. do?Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide. The...
Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Mining and Smelting. It produces metallic zinc, zamac, gold, sulfuric acid and zinc oxide, as well as by-products, such as sulfuric acid, silver concentrate, copper cement, copper sulfate, lead concentrate, lead-silver concentrate, and other metallurgical by-products. The Company owns and operates three polymetallic mines in Peru and two polymetallic mines in Brazil. The company owns and operates three polymetallic mines in Peru and two polymetallic mines in Brazil; zinc smelter in Peru and two zinc smelters in Brazil. The company was formerly known as VM Holding S.A. and changed its name to Nexa Resources S.A. in September 2017. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Nexa Resources S.A. is a subsidiary of Votorantim S.A.