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Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $14.32 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Mining and Smelting. It produces metallic zinc, zamac, gold, sulfuric acid and zinc oxide, as well as by-products, such as... Read more

$14.32+15.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#3 of 21 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield13.15%
IncomeYield1.18%(5y avg 5.05%)Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $13.32Target $16.55(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1
Analyst target$11.88-17.1%8 analysts
$16.55our TP
$14.32price
$11.88mean
$6
$17

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $14.32 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Nexa Resources S.A.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.2
P/E (Fwd)6.0
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA4.5
Profit Mgn6.4%
ROE24.4%
Rev Growth41.7%
Beta0.89
Dividend1.18%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C41.00bearish
IV76%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.5
Volume
0.6
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Llm Sentiment
2.0
Price Target
2.6
Analyst Rating
5.0
LLM news sentiment: -0.60 (n=1)Below analyst target

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 118.0%
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.45Resistance $16.89

Price Targets

$13
$17
A.Upside+15.6%
A.R:R-1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-27.9% upside)
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEXA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $14.32 — A.R:R is negative (-1.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $13.32. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEXA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.55 (+15.6% upside). Prior stop was $13.32. Stop-loss: $13.32.

What are the risks of investing in NEXA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is NEXA overvalued or undervalued?

Nexa Resources S.A. trades at a P/E of 9.2 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NEXA?

12 analysts cover NEXA with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Nexa Resources S.A. do?Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide. The...

Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Mining and Smelting. It produces metallic zinc, zamac, gold, sulfuric acid and zinc oxide, as well as by-products, such as sulfuric acid, silver concentrate, copper cement, copper sulfate, lead concentrate, lead-silver concentrate, and other metallurgical by-products. The Company owns and operates three polymetallic mines in Peru and two polymetallic mines in Brazil. The company owns and operates three polymetallic mines in Peru and two polymetallic mines in Brazil; zinc smelter in Peru and two zinc smelters in Brazil. The company was formerly known as VM Holding S.A. and changed its name to Nexa Resources S.A. in September 2017. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Nexa Resources S.A. is a subsidiary of Votorantim S.A.

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