Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.6 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
ALM · Why this verdict
Why Almonty Industries (ALM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Almonty offers 137% upside to the analyst target and a 38% ROE on a sharp revenue ramp, but the stock is 64% off its high in capitulation with negative cash conversion and a commodity-price-driven earnings base.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst target of $20.61 is about 136.9% above the $8.70 price, a reward-to-risk of 9.1. Targets | Price rises toward the target as earnings are reported. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets may rest on stale commodity prices, and the stock is 64% below its high. | ||
Forward P/E of 5.7x with forward earnings at 0.12 of trailing suggests earnings just expanded off a commodity price surge. Bear case | Forward estimates hold without mean reversion in commodity prices. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIf spot prices fall, forward estimates could be cut sharply. | ||
Quarterly revenue grew from about $9M in late 2025 to $43M in the June 2026 quarter. Earnings | Quarterly revenue stays above $40M. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA rapid jump from a small base may reflect a one-time pricing spike. | ||
Free cash flow is negative at about -46% of net income despite a 38% ROE, a red flag for earnings quality. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income. | →Stable |
| CounterCapital spending for mine expansion may explain the negative cash flow. | ||
RSI of 26 below the 200-day average and a falling volume signal capitulation, with implied volatility of 101%. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 and price stabilizes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising, so the pullback may be a buying chance, but heavy put positioning at 2.5 suggests more downside. | ||
The analyst target of $20.61 is about 136.9% above the $8.70 price, a reward-to-risk of 9.1.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price rises toward the target as earnings are reported.
CounterTargets may rest on stale commodity prices, and the stock is 64% below its high.
Forward P/E of 5.7x with forward earnings at 0.12 of trailing suggests earnings just expanded off a commodity price surge.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Forward estimates hold without mean reversion in commodity prices.
CounterIf spot prices fall, forward estimates could be cut sharply.
Quarterly revenue grew from about $9M in late 2025 to $43M in the June 2026 quarter.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $40M.
CounterA rapid jump from a small base may reflect a one-time pricing spike.
Free cash flow is negative at about -46% of net income despite a 38% ROE, a red flag for earnings quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income.
CounterCapital spending for mine expansion may explain the negative cash flow.
RSI of 26 below the 200-day average and a falling volume signal capitulation, with implied volatility of 101%.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and price stabilizes.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising, so the pullback may be a buying chance, but heavy put positioning at 2.5 suggests more downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 0.2 |
| Gross margin | 6.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 38%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -46% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 173%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 9.8 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.4 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸High IV: 93%
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:9.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=5.7x,ratio=0.12x
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
9.16
Upside
+137.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -64% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d, MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=5.7x,ratio=0.12x) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 9.16 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.0, Value at 6.3, and Quality at 5.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Catalyst at 3.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 9.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst upside to target falls below 40% from current 137%.
- P2Revenue Ramp
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $25M.
- P3Commodity Price Earnings Risk
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x as estimates are cut.
- P4Poor Earnings Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below 0% for 2 more quarters.
- P5Capitulation Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls more than 20% below the current $8.70.