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Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. At $171.42, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%).

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a federally-chartered GSE providing a secondary market for agricultural mortgage loans, USDA Securities, and rural infrastructure loans, earning net interest income and guarantee/commitment fees. As of Dec 31, 2025, $8.4B... Read more

$171.42+8.9% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#9 of 28 Credit Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.55%(5y avg 3.03%)Payout35.14%sustainable
Stop $163.87Target $186.72(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$219.67+28.1%3 analysts
$186.72our TP
$171.42price
$219.67mean
$228

Sell if holding. At $171.42, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Federal Agricultural Mortgage C

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.0 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%)
Thin upside margin: 8.9%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.1
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn56.3%
ROE13.4%
Rev Growth14.2%
Beta1.04
Dividend3.55%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV39%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartytop-3 AgVantage counterparties91%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 90.6% of the $8.4 billion outstanding principal amount of AgVantage securities... were issued by three institutions'
  • HIGHCustomertop-10 Agricultural Finance institutions55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, ten institutions generated approximately 55% of loan purchase volume in the Agricultural Finance line of business'
  • HIGHCustomertwo Infrastructure Finance institutions
    10-K Item 1A: 'transactions with two institutions represented nearly all of the business volume under our Infrastructure Finance line of business'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    Mandy M. Talan (Corporate Controller) appointed principal accounting officer effective April 21, 2026, succeeding Gregory Ramsey who retired April 8, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
    Gregory N. Ramsey, VP-Chief Accounting Officer (principal accounting officer), announced retirement effective April 8, 2026. No disagreement cited; successor Mandy Talan named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOW
    Human Capital and Compensation Committee approved base salary increases for named executive officers on March 5, 2026, effective retroactively to January 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $168.94Resistance $186.50

Price Targets

$164
$187
A.Upside+8.9%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $171.42, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $163.87. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $186.72 (+8.9% upside). Prior stop was $163.87. Stop-loss: $163.87.

What are the risks of investing in AGM?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.9%.

Is AGM overvalued or undervalued?

Federal Agricultural Mortgage C trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGM?

6 analysts cover AGM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $220.

What does Federal Agricultural Mortgage C do?Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a federally-chartered GSE providing a secondary market for...

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a federally-chartered GSE providing a secondary market for agricultural mortgage loans, USDA Securities, and rural infrastructure loans, earning net interest income and guarantee/commitment fees. As of Dec 31, 2025, $8.4B in AgVantage securities were outstanding (90.6% from three institutions) and $5.4B in contingent LTSPC/guarantee liabilities.

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