Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the AGM stock price target?

Take-profit $183.03 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $164.26.

Q: Is AGM overvalued or undervalued?

Federal Agricultural Mortgage C trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about AGM?

6 analysts cover AGM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $215.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Credit Services

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $173.45, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: three AgVantage institutions (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%).

Farmer Mac is a federally chartered GSE providing a secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans, purchasing and guaranteeing eligible loans and AgVantage securities for lenders in rural America. Revenue comes from net interest income and guarantee/commitment... Read more

$173.45+5.6% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#27 of 28 Credit Services

Stop $164.26Target $183.03(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.4:1

Analyst target$215.33+24.1%3 analysts

$183.03our TP

$173.45price

$215.33mean

$226

Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Attractive valuation

Margin of safety: 31%

Risks

Concentration risk — Counterparty: three AgVantage institutions (90.6%)

Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%)

Thin upside margin: 5.6%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.4

P/E (Fwd)8.3

Mkt Cap$1.9B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn55.7%

ROE12.9%

Rev Growth-5.8%

Beta0.97

Dividend3.54%

Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C7.44bearish

IV53%elevated

Max Pain$90-48.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHcounterpartythree AgVantage institutions91%
10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 90.6% of the $8.4 billion outstanding principal amount of AgVantage securities...were issued by three institutions.'
HIGHCustomertop-10 Agricultural Finance institutions55%
10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, ten institutions generated approximately 55% of loan purchase volume in the Agricultural Finance line of business.'
HIGHCustomertwo Infrastructure Finance institutions
10-K Item 1A: 'transactions with two institutions represented nearly all of the business volume under our Infrastructure Finance line of business.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
Farmer Mac appointed Mandy M. Talan (Managing Director, Corporate Controller) as principal accounting officer effective April 21, 2026. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →
2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
Gregory N. Ramsey (VP, Chief Accounting Officer) notified Farmer Mac of retirement effective April 8, 2026. Not the result of any disagreement with Company.
SEC filing →
2026-03-11Item 5.02LOW
Human Capital and Compensation Committee approved base salary increases for named officers effective retroactively to January 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.915%1.19

Quality6.215%0.93

Growth0.615%0.09

Momentum4.710%0.47

Sentiment6.710%0.67

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.010%0.40

Technical Setup3.75%0.19

Risk Profile5.15%0.26

Catalyst5.55%0.28

Overall (Σ contributions)4.96

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -5.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

1.1

Declining revenue: -6%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance

1.5

Bollinger

2.8

52w Position

6.9

GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

74 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $146.38Resistance $178.16

Price Targets

$164

$183

A.Upside+5.5%

A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AGM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $173.45, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: three AgVantage institutions (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $164.26. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the AGM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $183.03 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $164.26. Stop-loss: $164.26.

What are the risks of investing in AGM?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: three AgVantage institutions (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.6%.

Is AGM overvalued or undervalued?

Federal Agricultural Mortgage C trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGM?

6 analysts cover AGM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $215.

What does Federal Agricultural Mortgage C do?Farmer Mac is a federally chartered GSE providing a secondary market for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans,...