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AFGAmerican Financial Group, Inc.Hold5.4·$131.07-1.05%
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American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $131.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

American Financial Group is a specialty commercial P&C insurer operating through 36 Great American Insurance Group businesses, writing $10.69B in gross premiums in 2025 across property/transportation, specialty casualty, and specialty financial lines. Revenue comes from net... Read more

$131.07+3.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#16 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.72%
IncomeYield2.66%(5y avg 2.04%)Payout31.91%sustainable
Stop $125.91Target $135.24(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$142.83+9.0%6 analysts
$135.24our TP
$131.07price
$142.83mean
$127
$158

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $131.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$11.0B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn11.1%
ROE19.4%
Rev Growth0.3%
Beta0.63
Dividend2.66%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV106%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.7
Value Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
5.2
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $127.50Resistance $138.00

Price Targets

$126
$135
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.2% upside)
! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AFG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $131.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $135.24 (+3.2%), stop $125.91 (−4.1%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $135.24 (+3.2% upside). Target $135.24 (+3.2%), stop $125.91 (−4.1%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $125.91.

What are the risks of investing in AFG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Is AFG overvalued or undervalued?

American Financial Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AFG?

12 analysts cover AFG with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $143.

What does American Financial Group, Inc. do?American Financial Group is a specialty commercial P&C insurer operating through 36 Great American Insurance Group...

American Financial Group is a specialty commercial P&C insurer operating through 36 Great American Insurance Group businesses, writing $10.69B in gross premiums in 2025 across property/transportation, specialty casualty, and specialty financial lines. Revenue comes from net earned premiums ($7.05B) and investment income; the company posted an underwriting gain of $629M with a 91.0% GAAP combined ratio in 2025.

Related stocks: SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) · PLMR (Palomar Holdings, Inc.) · ORI (Old Republic International Corp) · STC (Stewart Information Services Co) · MCY (Mercury General Corporation)
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