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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.90: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.14; Below-average business quality.

Atlas Energy Solutions produces frac sand proppant and provides logistics services (including the 42-mile Dune Express conveyor) primarily in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico; its Power segment rents natural gas generators for oilfield production and artificial... Read more

$19.90+0.6% A.UpsideScore 4.0/10#28 of 31 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield2.88%
IncomeYield5.14%Payout808.33%at-risk
Stop $18.09Target $19.56(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$17.82-10.5%11 analysts
$19.56our TP
$19.90price
$17.82mean
$9
$28

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.90: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.14; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole key power equipment supplier
Target reached (-20.3% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)53.0
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA23.1
Profit Mgn-9.3%
ROE-8.0%
Rev Growth-10.8%
Beta1.04
Dividend5.14%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C12.14bearish
IV68%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin
    10-K Item 1: 'Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is a leading proppant producer, logistics, and distributed power solutions provider, primarily serving the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 power segment customers30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our power segment derived more than 30% of its total revenues from two customers'
  • HIGHSuppliersole key power equipment supplier
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our power generation business is dependent on a sole key supplier for access to the unique equipment used in the provision of our distributed power offering'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
1.0
Value Rank
4.7

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
1.1
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.5
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
News Activity
7.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.94Resistance $19.96

Price Targets

$18
$20
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (5 sells, 0.04% of cap)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AESI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.90: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 12.14; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $18.09. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AESI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.56 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $18.09. Stop-loss: $18.09.

What are the risks of investing in AESI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Supplier: sole key power equipment supplier; Target reached (-20.3% upside).

Is AESI overvalued or undervalued?

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 53.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AESI?

18 analysts cover AESI with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. do?Atlas Energy Solutions produces frac sand proppant and provides logistics services (including the 42-mile Dune Express...

Atlas Energy Solutions produces frac sand proppant and provides logistics services (including the 42-mile Dune Express conveyor) primarily in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico; its Power segment rents natural gas generators for oilfield production and artificial lift operations across major US resource basins. Revenue comes from proppant/logistics sales to E&P operators and power rental fees.

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