Ameren is a regulated electric utility with strong margins (19%) and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but at $110.54 it sits 6.3% above the analyst target, with declining revenue, negative free cash flow and heavy regulatory concentration.
Thesis pillars
- Price Above Analyst Target→Stable
- Missouri Regulatory Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Beat Streak→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
Ameren Corporation (AEE) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Sell if holding. At $110.37, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: MoPSC (Missouri electric service) (52.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Powder River Basin coal.
Ameren Corporation is a regulated utility holding company operating through Ameren Missouri (electric generation, transmission, distribution, and natural gas in Missouri), Ameren Illinois (electric distribution and natural gas in Illinois), and ATXI (FERC-regulated electric... Read more
Sell if holding. At $110.37, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: MoPSC (Missouri electric service) (52.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Powder River Basin coal. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Ameren Corporation
About Ameren Corporation
Ameren Corporation plans up to $33.1 billion in capital expenditures for 2026 through 2030, divided among Ameren Missouri ($22.2 billion), Ameren Illinois ($8.3 billion), and ATXI ($2.6 billion). Ameren Missouri electric service generated 52% of 2025 consolidated operating revenues, Illinois electric distribution 26%, Illinois natural gas delivery 11%, and electric transmission segments 8%. The MoPSC reset Ameren Missouri's electric rates in April 2025 (effective June 2025), and the ICC approved Illinois natural gas rates in November 2025.
Ameren earns regulated returns through cost-of-service rates determined by three regulators: the MoPSC for Missouri electric and natural gas service, the ICC for Illinois electric distribution and natural gas service, and FERC for electric transmission. Illinois electric distribution rates are set under a Multi-Year Rate Plan (MYRP) through at least 2027, with annual revenue reconciliation capped at 105% of the ICC-approved requirement; Illinois electric distribution revenues are decoupled from sales volumes by statute, insulating earnings from demand fluctuations. Missouri electric rates are limited by a PISA cap that restricts annual revenue requirement growth to 2.25% (reduced from 2.5%) for requirements approved by the MoPSC after August 2025. Ameren Missouri's fuel mix includes coal-fired plants (5% of Ameren's total rate base as of December 31, 2025), nuclear generation at the Callaway Energy Center (licensed through 2044), and natural gas. Approximately 96% of Ameren Missouri's coal is sourced from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming, where a limited number of suppliers creates delivery vulnerability if rail disruptions, weather events, or supplier financial difficulties occur.
Show full overview
Ameren Missouri's generation transition plan targets adding 3,200 MWs of renewable generation by 2030, 2,100 MWs of combined-cycle natural gas generation by 2035, and 1,500 MWs of nuclear capacity by 2040, while retiring all coal-fired energy centers by 2042—all contingent on MoPSC CCN approvals and, for nuclear, NRC license extension for Callaway beyond 2044. In February 2026, Ameren Missouri signed electric service agreements with large load customers representing 2.2 gigawatts of new demand. If actual capital costs or regulatory disallowances exceed projections, recovery depends on PISA deferrals subject to the 2.25% annual growth cap, exposing the company to possible stranded cost risk.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
From Ameren Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 1, 2026Recent Developments — Ameren Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Ameren (AEE) Could Be 5% Undervalued Following DOE Backed Grid Upgrade Win - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Nov 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS Grid Upgrade Project Could Be A Big Deal For Ameren Stock (AEE) - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ameren (AEE) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS AEE Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 2.82B USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS U.S. Department Of Energy Selects Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois And Pitch Aeronautics Inc. To Deliver Grid Enhancing — www.marketscreener.com Oct 28, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 1, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T12:04:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHregulatoryMoPSC (Missouri electric service)52%10-K Item 1: 'Portion of Ameren's 2025 Operating Revenues(a) ... Electric service(b)| MoPSC| April 2025| June 2025| (c)| (c)| (c)| 52%'
- HIGHSupplierPowder River Basin coal10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 96% of Ameren Missouri's coal is purchased from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming, which has a limited number of suppliers'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -6.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $110.37, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: MoPSC (Missouri electric service) (52.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Powder River Basin coal. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $106.69. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $103.55 reached (−6.2% from $110.37); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $106.69. Stop-loss: $106.69.
Concentration risk — Regulatory: MoPSC (Missouri electric service) (52.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Powder River Basin coal; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Ameren Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 19.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts rate AEE, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 18 analysts publish price targets averaging $115.
What does Ameren Corporation do?Ameren Corporation is a regulated utility holding company operating through Ameren Missouri (electric generation,...
Ameren Corporation is a regulated utility holding company operating through Ameren Missouri (electric generation, transmission, distribution, and natural gas in Missouri), Ameren Illinois (electric distribution and natural gas in Illinois), and ATXI (FERC-regulated electric transmission). Rate-regulated returns are set by the MoPSC, ICC, and FERC; Ameren Missouri electric service represented 52% of consolidated 2025 operating revenues. A planned capital expenditure program of up to $33.1 billion from 2026 through 2030 targets expanding renewable, natural gas, and nuclear generation.