Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 8.1 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.82
- ▸Attractively valued
ADMA · Why this verdict
Why ADMA Biologics (ADMA) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ADMA is a high-quality, profitable biotech (ROE 42%, 33% margins) trading at 12.1x forward earnings with 26.6% upside to the analyst target. Earnings in 3 days, weak growth and a high-volatility profile make it a speculative position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ADMA scores 8.2 on quality with excellent ROE of 42%, margins of 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, unusual for a biotechnology company. Quality breakdown | ROE and margins should hold near current levels (ROE above 30%, margins above 25%) over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 32% of net income, a flagged earnings-quality red flag, so reported profits may overstate cash generation. | ||
Forward P/E of 12.1x and PEG of 0.85 sit alongside an analyst target of $14.45, 26.6% above the $11.41 price. Valuation breakdown | Price should move toward the $14.45 analyst target as earnings are delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets are often optimistic; a 44% drawdown from the 52-week high shows the market has been pricing in risk. | ||
Growth scores only 4.0 and revenue growth is modest: quarterly revenue of $124.4M in June 2026 versus $122.0M a year earlier, about 2% YoY. Bear case | Revenue growth should re-accelerate above 10% YoY if growth is to support the valuation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMargins are already high, so modest growth with strong profitability may be sufficient, and quarterly revenue is lumpy. | ||
Earnings are due in 3 days (2026-11-04) with implied volatility at 96% and a put/call ratio of 1.65, and the last four quarters included a 15% miss. Warnings | Quarterly EPS should meet or beat estimates, avoiding a repeat of the -15.25% miss seen in May 2026. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThree of the last four quarters were beats or inline, and elevated put buying may reflect hedging rather than a view of a miss. | ||
Momentum score is 6.6 with rising on-balance volume signalling accumulation, and institutions are accumulating. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should stay above 5.5 with on-balance volume continuing to rise. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI near 70 and the moving-average slope is flat, so the trend may be extended and vulnerable to a pullback. | ||
ADMA scores 8.2 on quality with excellent ROE of 42%, margins of 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, unusual for a biotechnology company.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE and margins should hold near current levels (ROE above 30%, margins above 25%) over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 32% of net income, a flagged earnings-quality red flag, so reported profits may overstate cash generation.
Forward P/E of 12.1x and PEG of 0.85 sit alongside an analyst target of $14.45, 26.6% above the $11.41 price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $14.45 analyst target as earnings are delivered.
CounterAnalyst targets are often optimistic; a 44% drawdown from the 52-week high shows the market has been pricing in risk.
Growth scores only 4.0 and revenue growth is modest: quarterly revenue of $124.4M in June 2026 versus $122.0M a year earlier, about 2% YoY.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should re-accelerate above 10% YoY if growth is to support the valuation.
CounterMargins are already high, so modest growth with strong profitability may be sufficient, and quarterly revenue is lumpy.
Earnings are due in 3 days (2026-11-04) with implied volatility at 96% and a put/call ratio of 1.65, and the last four quarters included a 15% miss.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS should meet or beat estimates, avoiding a repeat of the -15.25% miss seen in May 2026.
CounterThree of the last four quarters were beats or inline, and elevated put buying may reflect hedging rather than a view of a miss.
Momentum score is 6.6 with rising on-balance volume signalling accumulation, and institutions are accumulating.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should stay above 5.5 with on-balance volume continuing to rise.
CounterRSI near 70 and the moving-average slope is flat, so the trend may be extended and vulnerable to a pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 2.6 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 42%
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 32% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.9 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 8.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 53%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.5 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 0.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.6 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 2.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.70
- ▸High IV: 101%
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.3 |
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.2>=7.5+momentum=7.1>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
3.09
Upside
+30.1%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 1d<=7d outcome against Quality at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of 3.09.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.2, Value at 7.9, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Growth at 4.0, and Catalyst at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.09 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Profitable Biotech
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 20% from current levels near 33%.
- P2Attractive Valuation With Upside
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from current 12.1x.
- P3Weak Top Line Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Earnings Event And Volatility Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in the next reported quarter.
- P5Accumulation And Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score drops to below 5.0 from current 6.6.