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Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $95.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Arch Capital Group is a Bermuda-based specialty insurer, reinsurer, and mortgage insurer with approximately $26.9 billion in capital, operating across insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage segments in Bermuda, the U.S., U.K., Europe, Canada, and Australia. It wrote $16.5 billion... Read more

$95.93+2.4% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#2 of 12 Insurance - Diversified
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield15.67%
Stop $92.25Target $98.03(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$108.92+13.5%19 analysts
$98.03our TP
$95.93price
$108.92mean
$125

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $95.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.5Qual6.4Grw5.8Mom6.9Sent6.8Ins5.0Peer5.1Tech5.3Risk8.16.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.4
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$33.7B
EV/EBITDA5.7
Profit Mgn24.6%
ROE21.3%
Rev Growth-3.3%
Beta0.33
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.54bullish
IV33%normal
Max Pain$75-21.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $91.44Resistance $98.62

Price Targets

$92
$98
A.Upside+2.2%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.4% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACGL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $95.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $98.03 (+2.2%), stop $92.25 (−4.0%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

What is the ACGL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $98.03 (+2.4% upside). Target $98.03 (+2.2%), stop $92.25 (−4.0%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $92.25.

What are the risks of investing in ACGL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is ACGL overvalued or undervalued?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. trades at a P/E of 7.4 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ACGL?

28 analysts cover ACGL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $109.

What does Arch Capital Group Ltd. do?Arch Capital Group is a Bermuda-based specialty insurer, reinsurer, and mortgage insurer with approximately $26.9...

Arch Capital Group is a Bermuda-based specialty insurer, reinsurer, and mortgage insurer with approximately $26.9 billion in capital, operating across insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage segments in Bermuda, the U.S., U.K., Europe, Canada, and Australia. It wrote $16.5 billion in net premiums in 2025 and reported net income of $4.4 billion, focusing on specialty lines across property, casualty, and mortgage.

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