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ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.Hold6.3·$89.61-1.73%
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Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Negative momentum.

Arch Capital Group is a Bermuda-based specialty insurer, reinsurer, and mortgage insurer with approximately $26.9 billion in capital, operating across insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage segments in Bermuda, the U.S., U.K., Europe, Canada, and Australia. It wrote $16.5 billion... Read more

$89.61+9.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#3 of 12 Insurance - Diversified
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield16.56%
Stop $85.51Target $98.03(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$108.92+21.6%19 analysts
$98.03our TP
$89.61price
$108.92mean
$125

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.4%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.0
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$31.9B
EV/EBITDA5.4
Profit Mgn24.6%
ROE21.3%
Rev Growth-3.3%
Beta0.31
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
1.3
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $87.05Resistance $97.43

Price Targets

$86
$98
A.Upside+9.4%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACGL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $89.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $98.03 (+9.4%), stop $85.51 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACGL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $98.03 (+9.4% upside). Target $98.03 (+9.4%), stop $85.51 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $85.51.

What are the risks of investing in ACGL?

Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Negative momentum.

Is ACGL overvalued or undervalued?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. trades at a P/E of 7.0 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ACGL?

28 analysts cover ACGL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $109.

What does Arch Capital Group Ltd. do?Arch Capital Group is a Bermuda-based specialty insurer, reinsurer, and mortgage insurer with approximately $26.9...

Arch Capital Group is a Bermuda-based specialty insurer, reinsurer, and mortgage insurer with approximately $26.9 billion in capital, operating across insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage segments in Bermuda, the U.S., U.K., Europe, Canada, and Australia. It wrote $16.5 billion in net premiums in 2025 and reported net income of $4.4 billion, focusing on specialty lines across property, casualty, and mortgage.

Related stocks: HIG (The Hartford Insurance Group, I) · AIG (American International Group, I) · AEG (Aegon Ltd. New York Registry Sh) · SLF (Sun Life Financial Inc.) · BNT (Brookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd)
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