Hartford screens as a high-quality compounder — a wide economic moat, a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score, and a forward P/E of 9.2x at a PEG of 0.22 — but the stock has nearly closed the gap to the analyst consensus target, leaving only about 2.4% headroom and a reward-to-risk ratio well below the threshold needed to justify adding; the setup favors holding an existing position rather than initiating.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Low Peg↓Deteriorating
- Wide Moat Compounder Quality↑Improving
- Strong Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026· older than 90 days
The Hartford Insurance Group, I (HIG) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: AARP exclusive licensing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
The Hartford Insurance Group provides P&C insurance, employee benefits, and mutual funds across five segments in the US and internationally, with $86.0 billion in total assets at year-end 2025. The company generated $28.4 billion in revenues in 2025; Business Insurance (earned... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: AARP exclusive licensing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $138.11 vs the analyst target $131.53: -4.8% upside; No upside left. Score 6.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About The Hartford Insurance Group, I
About The Hartford Insurance Group, I
The Hartford Insurance Group generated $28.4 billion in total revenues during 2025 across five reportable segments, with Business Insurance contributing $13.9 billion in earned premiums and Personal Insurance contributing $3.7 billion. Total assets were $86.0 billion and stockholders' equity was $19.0 billion at December 31, 2025. The company operates primarily in the United States as a P&C and employee-benefits insurer, with Lloyd's Syndicate 1221 regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulatory Authority in the United Kingdom.
Business Insurance spans three customer segments—small business, middle & large business, and global specialty—distributing workers' compensation, general liability, commercial property, professional liability, marine, bond, commercial automobile, and assumed reinsurance through independent retail agents, wholesale agents, and specialty brokers in both admitted and surplus lines markets. Global specialty accesses the Lloyd's market through Syndicate 1221, connecting to over 50 syndicates and 350 brokers writing in more than 200 countries. Personal Insurance writes automobile and homeowners coverage almost entirely through the exclusive AARP licensing arrangement, which contributed $3.4 billion of the segment's $3.7 billion in 2025 earned premiums. Distribution is concentrating: the 10-K notes that independent agents and brokers are consolidating, and a larger proportion of written premium may be concentrated among fewer distribution partners, placing greater emphasis on carrier enablement and digital connectivity. Employee Benefits and Hartford Funds contribute group benefits and asset management revenues.
Show full overview
The exclusive AARP licensing arrangement dominates Personal Insurance revenue, generating $3.4 billion of the segment's $3.7 billion in 2025 earned premiums. The arrangement is contractually embedded, with the current deal including the rollout of Prevail—a new cloud-based product platform—planned for 30 state launches by early 2027. Any deterioration of the AARP exclusivity could weigh on the Personal Insurance segment disproportionately given the scale of the arrangement, and the 10-K notes distribution concentration more broadly may intensify among larger brokers who are exercising greater bargaining power over the insurance value chain.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified
From The Hartford Insurance Group, I's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — The Hartford Insurance Group, I
Latest news
- NEWS The Hartford Downgraded To Neutral Despite Q3 Earnings Beat, Remaining A Dividend Idea - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Hartford (HIG) Stock Slips Even As Q3 Earnings Showcase Underwriting Strength - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS [The Hartford Insurance Group Q3 2026 Earnings Call] Hartford Lifts Dividend 12% as Core Earnings Hit $956 Million, but — BigGo Finance Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS HIG Q3 Earnings Beat on Investment Income and Premium Growth - TradingView — TradingView Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Where Does Hartford Insurance Group (HIG) Value Sit After Strong Results? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartyAARP exclusive licensing10-K Item 1: 'Most of Personal Insurance's sales are associated with its exclusive licensing arrangement with AARP'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.11, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: AARP exclusive licensing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $138.11 vs the analyst target $131.53: -4.8% upside; No upside left. Analyst target $131.53 reached (−4.8%), stop $129.08 (−7.0%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 6.4/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $131.53 reached (−4.8% from $138.11); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $131.53 reached (−4.8%), stop $129.08 (−7.0%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $129.08.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: AARP exclusive licensing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative news sentiment (-0.67).
The Hartford Insurance Group, I trades at a P/E of 9.2 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
29 analysts rate HIG, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 21 analysts publish price targets averaging $146.
What does The Hartford Insurance Group, I do?The Hartford Insurance Group provides P&C insurance, employee benefits, and mutual funds across five segments in the US...
The Hartford Insurance Group provides P&C insurance, employee benefits, and mutual funds across five segments in the US and internationally, with $86.0 billion in total assets at year-end 2025. The company generated $28.4 billion in revenues in 2025; Business Insurance (earned premiums $13.9 billion) is the dominant segment. Personal Insurance earns nearly all of its $3.7 billion in premiums through an exclusive AARP licensing arrangement.