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HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, IHold6.8·$131.02+0.92%
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The Hartford Insurance Group, I (HIG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $131.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: AARP exclusive licensing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

The Hartford Insurance Group provides P&C insurance, employee benefits, and mutual funds across five segments in the US and internationally, with $86.0 billion in total assets at year-end 2025. The company generated $28.4 billion in revenues in 2025; Business Insurance (earned... Read more

$131.02+1.4% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 12 Insurance - Diversified
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield15.74%
IncomeYield1.85%(5y avg 1.93%)Payout15.76%sustainable
Stop $125.50Target $132.89(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$147.65+12.7%20 analysts
$132.89our TP
$131.02price
$147.65mean
$163

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $131.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: AARP exclusive licensing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About The Hartford Insurance Group, I

About The Hartford Insurance Group, I

The Hartford Insurance Group generated $28.4 billion in total revenues during 2025 across five reportable segments, with Business Insurance contributing $13.9 billion in earned premiums and Personal Insurance contributing $3.7 billion. Total assets were $86.0 billion and stockholders' equity was $19.0 billion at December 31, 2025. The company operates primarily in the United States as a P&C and employee-benefits insurer, with Lloyd's Syndicate 1221 regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulatory Authority in the United Kingdom.

Business Insurance spans three customer segments—small business, middle & large business, and global specialty—distributing workers' compensation, general liability, commercial property, professional liability, marine, bond, commercial automobile, and assumed reinsurance through independent retail agents, wholesale agents, and specialty brokers in both admitted and surplus lines markets. Global specialty accesses the Lloyd's market through Syndicate 1221, connecting to over 50 syndicates and 350 brokers writing in more than 200 countries. Personal Insurance writes automobile and homeowners coverage almost entirely through the exclusive AARP licensing arrangement, which contributed $3.4 billion of the segment's $3.7 billion in 2025 earned premiums. Distribution is concentrating: the 10-K notes that independent agents and brokers are consolidating, and a larger proportion of written premium may be concentrated among fewer distribution partners, placing greater emphasis on carrier enablement and digital connectivity. Employee Benefits and Hartford Funds contribute group benefits and asset management revenues.

Show full overview

The exclusive AARP licensing arrangement dominates Personal Insurance revenue, generating $3.4 billion of the segment's $3.7 billion in 2025 earned premiums. The arrangement is contractually embedded, with the current deal including the rollout of Prevail—a new cloud-based product platform—planned for 30 state launches by early 2027. Any deterioration of the AARP exclusivity could weigh on the Personal Insurance segment disproportionately given the scale of the arrangement, and the 10-K notes distribution concentration more broadly may intensify among larger brokers who are exercising greater bargaining power over the insurance value chain.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified

From The Hartford Insurance Group, I's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: AARP exclusive licensing
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.1
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$35.6B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn14.1%
ROE22.7%
Rev Growth6.1%
Beta0.47
Dividend1.85%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.27bullish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$165+25.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyAARP exclusive licensing
    10-K Item 1: 'Most of Personal Insurance's sales are associated with its exclusive licensing arrangement with AARP'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $125.59Resistance $136.52

Price Targets

$126
$133
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.4% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HIG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $131.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: AARP exclusive licensing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $132.89 (+1.4%), stop $125.50 (−4.4%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HIG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $132.89 (+1.4% upside). Target $132.89 (+1.4%), stop $125.50 (−4.4%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $125.50.

What are the risks of investing in HIG?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: AARP exclusive licensing; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is HIG overvalued or undervalued?

The Hartford Insurance Group, I trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HIG?

29 analysts cover HIG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $148.

What does The Hartford Insurance Group, I do?The Hartford Insurance Group provides P&C insurance, employee benefits, and mutual funds across five segments in the US...

The Hartford Insurance Group provides P&C insurance, employee benefits, and mutual funds across five segments in the US and internationally, with $86.0 billion in total assets at year-end 2025. The company generated $28.4 billion in revenues in 2025; Business Insurance (earned premiums $13.9 billion) is the dominant segment. Personal Insurance earns nearly all of its $3.7 billion in premiums through an exclusive AARP licensing arrangement.

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