Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the AAP stock price target?

Take-profit $59.72 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $54.30.

Q: What are the risks of investing in AAP?

Target reached (-11.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0); Target reached (-11.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Q: Is AAP overvalued or undervalued?

Advance Auto Parts Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.3 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about AAP?

35 analysts cover AAP with a consensus score of 2.9/5. Average price target: $57.

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

$58.40+2.3% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#25 of 26 Auto Parts

Stop $54.30Target $59.72(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1

Analyst target$57.16-2.1%19 analysts

$59.72our TP

$58.40price

$57.16mean

$31

$70

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.40: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 31%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-11.9% upside)

Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.3

P/E (Fwd)14.2

Mkt Cap$3.4B

EV/EBITDA12.4

Profit Mgn0.5%

ROE3.1%

Rev Growth-1.2%

Beta1.07

Dividend1.79%

Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish

IV72%elevated

Max Pain$30-48.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
Exhibit No. | Exhibit Description [99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158449/000119312526100177/aap-ex99_1.htm) | [Press Release, dated March 10, 2026, issued by Advance Auto Parts, Inc.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158449/000119312526100177/aap-ex99_1.htm) 101.1 | Pursua...
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.615%0.84

Quality2.615%0.39

Growth2.215%0.33

Momentum3.310%0.33

Sentiment4.910%0.49

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank2.010%0.20

Technical Setup4.05%0.20

Risk Profile3.65%0.18

Catalyst8.05%0.40

Overall (Σ contributions)3.86

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.4

Quality Rank

2.6

Value Rank

5.0

Revenue shrinking — -1.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

2.2

Declining revenue: -1%

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality

0.0

Net Margin

0.3

Roa

0.7

Roe

1.0

Operating Margin

1.4

Piotroski F

4.4

Gross Margin

4.8

Moat

5.0

Current Ratio

6.2

Earnings quality RED FLAG: -591% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Macd

1.7

Rsi

5.0

Ma Position

9.0

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

64 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $50.74Resistance $60.94

Price Targets

$54

$60

A.Upside+2.3%

A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.9% upside)

! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-21 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AAP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.40: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 31%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $54.30. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the AAP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $59.72 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $54.30. Stop-loss: $54.30.

What are the risks of investing in AAP?

Target reached (-11.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is AAP overvalued or undervalued?

Advance Auto Parts Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.3 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AAP?

35 analysts cover AAP with a consensus score of 2.9/5. Average price target: $57.

What does Advance Auto Parts Inc. do?Advance Auto Parts, Inc. and its subsidiaries is a leading automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America,...

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. and its subsidiaries is a leading automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers ("professional") and "do-it-yourself" ("DIY") customers, as well as independently-owned operators. The Company's stores offer a broad selection of brand names, original equipment manufacturer ("OEM") and owned brand automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility ve...