Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
YOU · Why this verdict
Why Clear Secure (YOU) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is highly concentrated in the CLEAR+ subscription product, meaning any membership growth deceleration, price increase rejection, or airline-partner renegotiation directly impacts the entire revenue base without diversification offset. Bear case | CLEAR+ active member count grows by more than 15% year-over-year in the next annual report, confirming the subscription funnel remains healthy. | →Stable |
| CounterSingle-product subscription businesses with wide moat designations can sustain pricing and volume growth for extended periods without the concentration becoming a structural liability. | ||
Clear Secure generates an ROE of 110%, converts 278% of net income into free cash flow, passes the Rule of 40 with a score of 56, and holds a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting a capital-light subscription model with durable moat characteristics in biometric airport identity. Quality breakdown | ROE remains above 80% and Rule of 40 score stays above 50 over the next 12 months as membership growth competes effectively with airport lane economics. | →Stable |
| CounterBiometric identity networks are subject to government mandates and TSA competitive programs that could reduce the value of private-lane privileges and compress CLEAR+'s pricing power. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 14.4%, including a 32% positive beat in May 2026, demonstrate consistent execution against conservative guidance, with the most recent quarter at $0.47 actual versus $0.36 estimated. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and average EPS surprise remains above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterCLEAR+'s subscription revenue model may be approaching saturation in its existing airport footprint, which could cause top-line growth to decelerate and make the historically conservative guidance harder to sustainably beat. | ||
RSI at 22 combined with a volume surge places the stock in an extreme oversold condition, while 13% short interest and above-average implied volatility of 89% create a volatile setup where a catalyst could produce a significant short-covering rally. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above $54, which is more than 4% above the current $51.66, and RSI rises above 40 within the next 3 months as the oversold condition resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at 22 in a stock with a confirmed officer departure announcement creates uncertainty about whether the technical oversold reading is justified by fundamental concern rather than pure sentiment. | ||
Revenue is highly concentrated in the CLEAR+ subscription product, meaning any membership growth deceleration, price increase rejection, or airline-partner renegotiation directly impacts the entire revenue base without diversification offset.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- CLEAR+ active member count grows by more than 15% year-over-year in the next annual report, confirming the subscription funnel remains healthy.
CounterSingle-product subscription businesses with wide moat designations can sustain pricing and volume growth for extended periods without the concentration becoming a structural liability.
Clear Secure generates an ROE of 110%, converts 278% of net income into free cash flow, passes the Rule of 40 with a score of 56, and holds a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting a capital-light subscription model with durable moat characteristics in biometric airport identity.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE remains above 80% and Rule of 40 score stays above 50 over the next 12 months as membership growth competes effectively with airport lane economics.
CounterBiometric identity networks are subject to government mandates and TSA competitive programs that could reduce the value of private-lane privileges and compress CLEAR+'s pricing power.
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 14.4%, including a 32% positive beat in May 2026, demonstrate consistent execution against conservative guidance, with the most recent quarter at $0.47 actual versus $0.36 estimated.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and average EPS surprise remains above 10%.
CounterCLEAR+'s subscription revenue model may be approaching saturation in its existing airport footprint, which could cause top-line growth to decelerate and make the historically conservative guidance harder to sustainably beat.
RSI at 22 combined with a volume surge places the stock in an extreme oversold condition, while 13% short interest and above-average implied volatility of 89% create a volatile setup where a catalyst could produce a significant short-covering rally.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above $54, which is more than 4% above the current $51.66, and RSI rises above 40 within the next 3 months as the oversold condition resolves.
CounterRSI at 22 in a stock with a confirmed officer departure announcement creates uncertainty about whether the technical oversold reading is justified by fundamental concern rather than pure sentiment.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Clear Secure is a high-growth, high-quality biometric identity platform with 110% ROE, a Rule of 40 score of 56, a perfect 4-of-4 earnings beat record, and a PEG ratio of 0.41, though extreme near-term oversold conditions at RSI 22 and 13% short interest create a technical overhang that has pushed the stock to an oversold-bounce setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.9 |
| Gross margin | 9.1 |
| Op margin | 9.8 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 110%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 278% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
| erm sentiment | 4.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $27,787,391 (0.386% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.0 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
- ▸High IV: 152%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 112.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $56.74 has reached target $56.35. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.39%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.31
Upside
-4.0%
Downside
12.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 8.2 and growth 8.7 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of -0.31 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Quality at 8.2, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Technical at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Quality Compounding
Trip ifROE falls below 60%, declining more than 50 percentage points from the current 110% level.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, reversing the established beat record.
- P3Oversold Rsi Short Interest Overhang
Trip ifPrice falls below $42.97 stop-loss, declining more than 17% from the current $51.66.
- P4Subscription Concentration Risk
Trip ifActive member count growth falls below 5% year-over-year, declining more than 10 percentage points from the implied current growth trajectory.