Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
YETI · Why this verdict
Why YETI Holdings (YETI) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
YETI Holdings is a wide-moat consumer brand with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and a 3-of-4 earnings beat record, but the stock has exceeded analyst price targets with negative asymmetry of negative 0.49 and high geographic concentration in the United States at 79%, leaving limited upside at current prices near $50.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
YETI's wide economic moat designation, ROE of 7.4x, strong gross margins, and perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 confirm it operates with durable brand advantages that allow premium pricing and repeat purchase behavior above commodity-level competition. Quality breakdown | Gross margins remain above 50% and ROE stays above 25% over the next 12 months, confirming the moat is holding against competition. | →Stable |
| CounterPremium outdoor consumer brands are vulnerable to fast-follower competition at lower price points, and a spending slowdown in the aspirational consumer segment could rapidly erode YETI's pricing power. | ||
With 79% of revenue derived from the United States, YETI is heavily exposed to U.S. consumer discretionary spending cycles, and any significant domestic recession or tariff-related cost increase on imported materials would disproportionately impact the company versus geographically diversified peers. Bear case | International revenue grows to represent more than 25% of total revenue within 12 months, reducing the U.S. concentration from 79% toward a more balanced profile. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh U.S. concentration reflects strong brand penetration in a proven market rather than geographic risk; international expansion is capital-intensive and often dilutive to margins in early phases. | ||
The stock has risen above its analyst price targets with implied negative 7.4% to the consensus, resulting in a negative asymmetry ratio of negative 0.49 and only 1.9% to the next technical resistance level while downside to the stop-loss is 7%—a risk-reward that does not favor new positions. Warnings | Analyst consensus target rises above $55 within 12 months through earnings upgrades following continued beats, restoring positive asymmetry above the 1.5x minimum. | ↑Improving |
| CounterConsumer discretionary companies near 52-week highs with negative asymmetry historically underperform over the following 6 months as the stock consolidates or corrects toward fundamental support. | ||
Three of four recent quarterly earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 13.7%, combined with a strong growth score driven by earnings growth, confirm that YETI is consistently operating above Wall Street models. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and average EPS surprise stays above 10%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe one quarterly miss of negative 10.6% in February 2026 came in a typically strong holiday quarter, raising the possibility that consumer demand is softening at the margin for premium outdoor products. | ||
YETI's wide economic moat designation, ROE of 7.4x, strong gross margins, and perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 confirm it operates with durable brand advantages that allow premium pricing and repeat purchase behavior above commodity-level competition.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Gross margins remain above 50% and ROE stays above 25% over the next 12 months, confirming the moat is holding against competition.
CounterPremium outdoor consumer brands are vulnerable to fast-follower competition at lower price points, and a spending slowdown in the aspirational consumer segment could rapidly erode YETI's pricing power.
With 79% of revenue derived from the United States, YETI is heavily exposed to U.S. consumer discretionary spending cycles, and any significant domestic recession or tariff-related cost increase on imported materials would disproportionately impact the company versus geographically diversified peers.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue grows to represent more than 25% of total revenue within 12 months, reducing the U.S. concentration from 79% toward a more balanced profile.
CounterHigh U.S. concentration reflects strong brand penetration in a proven market rather than geographic risk; international expansion is capital-intensive and often dilutive to margins in early phases.
The stock has risen above its analyst price targets with implied negative 7.4% to the consensus, resulting in a negative asymmetry ratio of negative 0.49 and only 1.9% to the next technical resistance level while downside to the stop-loss is 7%—a risk-reward that does not favor new positions.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target rises above $55 within 12 months through earnings upgrades following continued beats, restoring positive asymmetry above the 1.5x minimum.
CounterConsumer discretionary companies near 52-week highs with negative asymmetry historically underperform over the following 6 months as the stock consolidates or corrects toward fundamental support.
Three of four recent quarterly earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 13.7%, combined with a strong growth score driven by earnings growth, confirm that YETI is consistently operating above Wall Street models.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and average EPS surprise stays above 10%.
CounterThe one quarterly miss of negative 10.6% in February 2026 came in a typically strong holiday quarter, raising the possibility that consumer demand is softening at the margin for premium outdoor products.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.4 |
| ROA | 6.9 |
| Gross margin | 7.4 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 4.2 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.2 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 4.9 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 4.2 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.97
Upside
-8.3%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.73>1.3, MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.3; weakest: Peer rank at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.3, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 7.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7, and Technical at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.97 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifGross margin falls below 45%, declining more than 5 percentage points from the current level above 50%.
- P2Us Concentration Geographic Risk
Trip ifU.S. revenue declines more than 10% year-over-year in any of the next 2 reported quarters, indicating the domestic concentration is becoming a liability.
- P3Target Exceeded Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice falls below $46.39 stop-loss, declining more than 7% from the current $49.88.
- P4Earnings Beat Record Growth Profile
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.