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XZOExzeo Group, Inc.Sell6.2·$18.69+3.89%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Exzeo Group is a high-quality diversified insurance company with exceptional ROE of 59%, operating margins of 38%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, while analysts project 66% upside to a consensus target near $22—though light analyst coverage and weak growth temper the near-term confidence.

Thesis pillars

  • 66pct Analyst Upside GapStable
  • Leverage Drag On Smaller InsurerStable
  • Exceptional Roe And MarginsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified

Sell if holding. At $18.69, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Weak growth.

Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The company offers an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform that provides solutions for operational and administrative activities, such as quoting and... Read more

$18.69+18.2% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#4 of 14 Insurance - Diversified
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
Stop $17.38Target $22.10(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$26.00+39.1%2 analysts
$22.10our TP
$18.69price
$26.00mean
$27

Sell if holding. At $18.69, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5
Weak growth
Overbought (RSI 91)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.9
P/E (Fwd)16.3
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA12.6
Profit Mgn37.6%
ROE58.7%
Rev Growth9.9%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
5.2

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.3
Revenue Growth
5.0
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
91 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $12.36Resistance $18.87

Price Targets

$17
$22
A.Upside+18.2%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XZO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $18.69, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.38. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the XZO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.10 (+18.2% upside). Prior stop was $17.38. Stop-loss: $17.38.

What are the risks of investing in XZO?

Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Weak growth; Overbought (RSI 91).

Is XZO overvalued or undervalued?

Exzeo Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about XZO?

7 analysts cover XZO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $26.

What does Exzeo Group, Inc. do?Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The...

Exzeo Group, Inc. provides turnkey insurance technology and operations solutions to insurance carriers and agents. The company offers an Insurance-as-a-Service (IaaS) platform that provides solutions for operational and administrative activities, such as quoting and underwriting, policy management, claims processing management, data reporting, and financial reporting. It serves property and casualty insurance industry. The company was formerly known as TypTap Insurance Group, Inc. Exzeo Group, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tampa, Florida. Exzeo Group, Inc. is a subsidiary of HCI Group, Inc.

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