Value
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
WHR · Why this verdict
Why Whirlpool (WHR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Whirlpool's free cash flow is -202% of net income, flagged as a red flag in quality analysis — meaning for every dollar of reported earnings, the company is consuming over two dollars in cash, indicating the business is burning capital at a rate far exceeding reported profitability. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves from -202% to at least zero within 12 months, as capital expenditure normalizes relative to operating cash flows. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge appliance companies often invest heavily in manufacturing upgrades or restructuring during down-cycles; the deeply negative free cash flow may reflect one-time capital spending that will not recur, and reported GAAP earnings may understate the true earnings power once restructuring ends. | ||
Analysts project 35% upside to $49.19 from the current $41.86, but this potential reward must be weighed against the high-severity concentration risk of dependence on single-source suppliers for proprietary components — a vulnerability that could cause production disruptions. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst consensus price target is maintained above $45 over the next 6 months, indicating analysts are not revising targets lower despite the earnings miss pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward price-to-earnings of 8.3x and PEG of 0.12 suggest the stock is extremely cheap on normalized earnings; if the business can stabilize its earnings and free cash flow, the analyst upside may prove conservative. | ||
Whirlpool missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -117.6% and a catastrophic -469.8% miss in the most recent quarter — suggesting the business is facing significant operational pressure that management is not communicating accurately in guidance. Earnings | Earnings beat rate returns to at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with miss magnitude improving to less than -20% in any single quarter over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one beat quarter showed 50% positive surprise, indicating when conditions favor the business, results can be dramatically better than expected; the miss pattern may reflect timing of restructuring charges rather than structural deterioration. | ||
Whirlpool has a confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average slope declining 8.8% per 30 days — one of the steeper downtrends in the universe — and falling on-balance volume, confirming sustained selling pressure. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and stays above for at least 20 consecutive trading days, with on-balance volume beginning to trend upward. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is showing improvement despite the death cross, and RSI at 47 is neutral rather than deeply oversold; the improving MACD could be a leading indicator of a trend reversal before the death cross formally clears. | ||
Whirlpool's free cash flow is -202% of net income, flagged as a red flag in quality analysis — meaning for every dollar of reported earnings, the company is consuming over two dollars in cash, indicating the business is burning capital at a rate far exceeding reported profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income improves from -202% to at least zero within 12 months, as capital expenditure normalizes relative to operating cash flows.
CounterLarge appliance companies often invest heavily in manufacturing upgrades or restructuring during down-cycles; the deeply negative free cash flow may reflect one-time capital spending that will not recur, and reported GAAP earnings may understate the true earnings power once restructuring ends.
Analysts project 35% upside to $49.19 from the current $41.86, but this potential reward must be weighed against the high-severity concentration risk of dependence on single-source suppliers for proprietary components — a vulnerability that could cause production disruptions.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target is maintained above $45 over the next 6 months, indicating analysts are not revising targets lower despite the earnings miss pattern.
CounterA forward price-to-earnings of 8.3x and PEG of 0.12 suggest the stock is extremely cheap on normalized earnings; if the business can stabilize its earnings and free cash flow, the analyst upside may prove conservative.
Whirlpool missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -117.6% and a catastrophic -469.8% miss in the most recent quarter — suggesting the business is facing significant operational pressure that management is not communicating accurately in guidance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate returns to at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with miss magnitude improving to less than -20% in any single quarter over the next 12 months.
CounterThe one beat quarter showed 50% positive surprise, indicating when conditions favor the business, results can be dramatically better than expected; the miss pattern may reflect timing of restructuring charges rather than structural deterioration.
Whirlpool has a confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average slope declining 8.8% per 30 days — one of the steeper downtrends in the universe — and falling on-balance volume, confirming sustained selling pressure.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and stays above for at least 20 consecutive trading days, with on-balance volume beginning to trend upward.
CounterMACD is showing improvement despite the death cross, and RSI at 47 is neutral rather than deeply oversold; the improving MACD could be a leading indicator of a trend reversal before the death cross formally clears.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Whirlpool's quality score of 1.7 is well below the investment minimum, with a catastrophic free cash flow deficit of -202% relative to net income, 3 earnings misses in the last 4 quarters including a -470% miss, and a confirmed death cross — despite an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 8.3x and 35% analyst upside, the fundamental deterioration makes this a position to exit.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.8 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -202% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 2.7 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 3.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.17
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 990.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- NEWS_SOFT:RESTRUCTURING
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.39
Upside
+28.1%
Downside
11.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -65% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 5.5, and Growth at 5.0; the weakest are Quality at 1.7, Catalyst at 3.4, and Momentum at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.39 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Catastrophic Free Cash Flow Deficit
Trip ifFree cash flow remains below -100% of net income for at least 3 of the next 4 reported periods.
- P2Severe Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEarnings miss rate stays at 3 or more of the next 4 quarters, with at least 1 miss exceeding -50% surprise.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $35, more than 16% below the current $41.86, with the death cross remaining in effect for more than 90 consecutive trading days.
- P4Analyst Upside Against Single Source Supplier Risk
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $40, below the current price of $41.86, signaling broad analyst capitulation.