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WDWalker & Dunlop, IncSell6.1·$54.55-0.67%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Walker and Dunlop reported 32% revenue growth year-over-year and trades at a forward P/E of 8.8x with 13.8% upside to analyst targets, but has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters and carries an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 6.56 indicating strong options market caution.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth 32 PercentStable
  • Earnings Inconsistency Mixed DeliveryStable
  • Elevated Put Call Downside ConcernStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Walker & Dunlop, Inc (WD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Mortgage Finance

Sell if holding. At $54.55, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.9%.

Walker & Dunlop is a commercial real estate services, finance, and technology company with three segments — Capital Markets, Servicing & Asset Management, and Corporate — focused on multifamily and affordable housing lending, brokerage, and investment management. It originates... Read more

$54.55+4.9% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#4 of 7 Mortgage Finance
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.99%(5y avg 2.87%)Payout133.17%at-risk
Stop $50.73Target $57.23(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$67.33+23.4%3 analysts
$57.23our TP
$54.55price
$67.33mean
$70

Sell if holding. At $54.55, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.9%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Walker & Dunlop, Inc

Generated 2026-07-06T09:31:41Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.9%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.0
P/E (Fwd)9.4
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn5.7%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth32.0%
Beta1.47
Dividend4.99%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV47%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.4
Support Resistance
2.1
52w Position
2.6
Gap
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.1
Quality Rank
4.2
Growth Rank
4.3
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $48.53Resistance $56.18

Price Targets

$51
$57
A.Upside+4.9%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $54.55, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.9%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $50.73. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $57.23 (+4.9% upside). Prior stop was $50.73. Stop-loss: $50.73.

What are the risks of investing in WD?

Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.0): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is WD overvalued or undervalued?

Walker & Dunlop, Inc trades at a P/E of 27.0 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WD?

12 analysts cover WD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $67.

What does Walker & Dunlop, Inc do?Walker & Dunlop is a commercial real estate services, finance, and technology company with three segments — Capital...

Walker & Dunlop is a commercial real estate services, finance, and technology company with three segments — Capital Markets, Servicing & Asset Management, and Corporate — focused on multifamily and affordable housing lending, brokerage, and investment management. It originates nearly all loans through Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and HUD/Ginnie Mae programs, retains servicing on most of them, and manages $2.7 billion of AUM through WDIP.

Related stocks: VEL (Velocity Financial, Inc.) · UWMC (UWM Holdings Corporation) · BETR (Better Home & Finance Holding C) · LDI (loanDepot, Inc.) · PFSI (PennyMac Financial Services, In)
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