Value
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.4 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.69
WAB · Why this verdict
Why Westinghouse Air Brake Technolo (WAB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Westinghouse Air Brake has beaten EPS consensus estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.6%, and is the industry growth leader among peers, reflecting consistent operational execution in the railroad equipment space. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters and average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 2%. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect beat streak over 4 quarters can reflect overly conservative guidance management rather than genuine earnings power; the beat margin is modest and any macro slowdown in rail freight volumes could interrupt it. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross with price above all moving averages, MACD in a bullish configuration, and on-balance-volume trending upward, consistent with a technical breakout setup that has attracted momentum buyers. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and MACD stays positive for at least 90 days over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock sits only 2.5% below its 52-week high and has already reached analyst price targets; technical breakouts that are fully priced often fade rather than extend. | ||
The company carries identified concentration risk from single-sourced component suppliers, which represents a documented supply chain vulnerability that could disrupt production and earnings if a key supplier experiences problems. Bear case | Supply chain concentration risk remains contained with no publicly disclosed supplier disruptions over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSingle-source supplier dependencies are common in specialized industrial equipment and may reflect deliberate quality-over-redundancy decisions rather than operational fragility. | ||
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.44 and a current price above the take-profit level of $267.30, the reward-to-risk ratio has turned negative at current prices, limiting the case for new position entry despite strong fundamental momentum. Targets | A pullback brings the stock below $255 and restores a positive reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0, creating a better entry opportunity within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks with strong earnings momentum and industry-leading growth often sustain premium valuations; the negative asymmetry may resolve through analyst target upgrades rather than a price pullback. | ||
Westinghouse Air Brake has beaten EPS consensus estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.6%, and is the industry growth leader among peers, reflecting consistent operational execution in the railroad equipment space.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters and average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 2%.
CounterA perfect beat streak over 4 quarters can reflect overly conservative guidance management rather than genuine earnings power; the beat margin is modest and any macro slowdown in rail freight volumes could interrupt it.
The stock has formed a golden cross with price above all moving averages, MACD in a bullish configuration, and on-balance-volume trending upward, consistent with a technical breakout setup that has attracted momentum buyers.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and MACD stays positive for at least 90 days over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock sits only 2.5% below its 52-week high and has already reached analyst price targets; technical breakouts that are fully priced often fade rather than extend.
The company carries identified concentration risk from single-sourced component suppliers, which represents a documented supply chain vulnerability that could disrupt production and earnings if a key supplier experiences problems.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Supply chain concentration risk remains contained with no publicly disclosed supplier disruptions over the next 12 months.
CounterSingle-source supplier dependencies are common in specialized industrial equipment and may reflect deliberate quality-over-redundancy decisions rather than operational fragility.
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.44 and a current price above the take-profit level of $267.30, the reward-to-risk ratio has turned negative at current prices, limiting the case for new position entry despite strong fundamental momentum.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A pullback brings the stock below $255 and restores a positive reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0, creating a better entry opportunity within 12 months.
CounterStocks with strong earnings momentum and industry-leading growth often sustain premium valuations; the negative asymmetry may resolve through analyst target upgrades rather than a price pullback.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Westinghouse Air Brake has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters and holds a leading growth position within its industry peer group, though the stock has reached its analyst price target and the reward-to-risk ratio has turned negative at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 7.6 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 4.6 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $18,534,138 (0.042% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.4 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 47.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.04
Upside
-0.2%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 16d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.04 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Insider at 3.9, and Value at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the perfect beat streak.
- P2Breakout Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below it for more than 30 consecutive days.
- P3Concentration Risk Supplier Dependency
Trip ifThe company discloses a supplier disruption that is expected to reduce revenue by more than 5% in any single quarter.
- P4Negative Asymmetry At Current Price
Trip ifPrice rises above $290, more than 8% above the current $268.89, without a corresponding analyst target upgrade above $300.