Value
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.2 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.29
WAB · Why this verdict
Why Westinghouse Air Brake Technolo (WAB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Westinghouse Air Brake has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters and holds a leading growth position within its industry peer group, though the stock has reached its analyst price target and the reward-to-risk ratio has turned negative at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Westinghouse Air Brake has beaten EPS consensus estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.6%, and is the industry growth leader among peers, reflecting consistent operational execution in the railroad equipment space. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters and average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 2%. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect beat streak over 4 quarters can reflect overly conservative guidance management rather than genuine earnings power; the beat margin is modest and any macro slowdown in rail freight volumes could interrupt it. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross with price above all moving averages, MACD in a bullish configuration, and on-balance-volume trending upward, consistent with a technical breakout setup that has attracted momentum buyers. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and MACD stays positive for at least 90 days over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock sits only 2.5% below its 52-week high and has already reached analyst price targets; technical breakouts that are fully priced often fade rather than extend. | ||
The company carries identified concentration risk from single-sourced component suppliers, which represents a documented supply chain vulnerability that could disrupt production and earnings if a key supplier experiences problems. Bear case | Supply chain concentration risk remains contained with no publicly disclosed supplier disruptions over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSingle-source supplier dependencies are common in specialized industrial equipment and may reflect deliberate quality-over-redundancy decisions rather than operational fragility. | ||
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.44 and a current price above the take-profit level of $267.30, the reward-to-risk ratio has turned negative at current prices, limiting the case for new position entry despite strong fundamental momentum. Targets | A pullback brings the stock below $255 and restores a positive reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0, creating a better entry opportunity within 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStocks with strong earnings momentum and industry-leading growth often sustain premium valuations; the negative asymmetry may resolve through analyst target upgrades rather than a price pullback. | ||
Westinghouse Air Brake has beaten EPS consensus estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.6%, and is the industry growth leader among peers, reflecting consistent operational execution in the railroad equipment space.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters and average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 2%.
CounterA perfect beat streak over 4 quarters can reflect overly conservative guidance management rather than genuine earnings power; the beat margin is modest and any macro slowdown in rail freight volumes could interrupt it.
The stock has formed a golden cross with price above all moving averages, MACD in a bullish configuration, and on-balance-volume trending upward, consistent with a technical breakout setup that has attracted momentum buyers.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and MACD stays positive for at least 90 days over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock sits only 2.5% below its 52-week high and has already reached analyst price targets; technical breakouts that are fully priced often fade rather than extend.
The company carries identified concentration risk from single-sourced component suppliers, which represents a documented supply chain vulnerability that could disrupt production and earnings if a key supplier experiences problems.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Supply chain concentration risk remains contained with no publicly disclosed supplier disruptions over the next 12 months.
CounterSingle-source supplier dependencies are common in specialized industrial equipment and may reflect deliberate quality-over-redundancy decisions rather than operational fragility.
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.44 and a current price above the take-profit level of $267.30, the reward-to-risk ratio has turned negative at current prices, limiting the case for new position entry despite strong fundamental momentum.
Tripped↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- A pullback brings the stock below $255 and restores a positive reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0, creating a better entry opportunity within 12 months.
CounterStocks with strong earnings momentum and industry-leading growth often sustain premium valuations; the negative asymmetry may resolve through analyst target upgrades rather than a price pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.1 |
| Op margin | 7.7 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 5.8 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 84)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.36 (n=5)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $2,775,103 (0.005% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 6.1 |
| implied vol | 7.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $190
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $301.34 has reached target $297.34. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.43
Upside
-6.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Insider at 7.3; weakest: Technical at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Sentiment at 7.2, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Value at 4.4, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the perfect beat streak.
- P2Breakout Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below it for more than 30 consecutive days.
- P3Concentration Risk Supplier Dependency
Trip ifThe company discloses a supplier disruption that is expected to reduce revenue by more than 5% in any single quarter.
- P4Negative Asymmetry At Current PriceTripped
Trip ifPrice rises above $290, more than 8% above the current $268.89, without a corresponding analyst target upgrade above $300.