Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.0 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.45
- ▸Attractively valued
VST · Why this verdict
Why Vistra (VST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing at 43% year-over-year — the highest growth score in the portfolio at 10.0/10 — driven by data center and AI electricity demand, which is providing structural tailwinds to independent power producers with natural gas and nuclear generation capacity. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain above 25% annually over the next 12 months, and the forward P/E of 14.0x should compress toward 10x as earnings catch up with the revenue trajectory. | →Stable |
| Counter62% of revenue depends on natural gas commodity pricing, which is subject to rapid and unpredictable swings; a decline in natural gas prices or a warm winter could materially reduce both revenue and earnings within a single quarter. | ||
Vistra has missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a -76.52% miss in Q1 2026 (actual $0.54 versus expected $2.30) and average negative surprise of -10.87% — a pattern that raises serious questions about management's ability to provide reliable guidance in a commodity-driven business. Bear case | Earnings should beat or match consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters to reverse the miss pattern, and the magnitude of surprises should remain above -10% to demonstrate improving earnings predictability. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one beat in the most recent quarter was large at +53.35%, suggesting the misses were tied to timing of commodity price movements rather than deteriorating operations, and the business may be normalizing around a more predictable earnings trajectory. | ||
The stock is in a falling-knife pattern below all moving averages, with the 200-day MA declining at -4.0% over 30 days, RSI at 38, and bearish MACD — the setup type is explicitly flagged as FALLING_KNIFE, which describes a stock in a high-momentum downtrend without a clear floor. Chart pattern detection | For the technical thesis to recover, the stock should find support above $142 (the stop-loss level) and RSI should recover above 45 within 60 days, indicating selling pressure is exhausting. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling knife patterns with confirmed death crosses in stocks carrying high leverage (debt-to-equity penalty triggered) have historically extended further than expected, and the 3-miss earnings streak provides fundamental justification for the downtrend. | ||
Analysts target $202.76 — representing 32.1% upside from the current $153.52 — with a sentiment score of 8.2/10 driven by 47% upside projection and high analyst coverage confidence, but a debt-to-equity ratio that triggers a -1.5 leverage penalty flag is a structural constraint on the upside realization. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst price targets should remain above $190 over the next 12 months, and the company should demonstrate debt reduction or improved debt-to-earnings coverage to remove the leverage penalty. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh leverage in a commodity business with volatile earnings creates a scenario where analyst upside targets could be rapidly cut following a bad quarter; the 32% upside is not net of the leverage risk embedded in the capital structure. | ||
Revenue is growing at 43% year-over-year — the highest growth score in the portfolio at 10.0/10 — driven by data center and AI electricity demand, which is providing structural tailwinds to independent power producers with natural gas and nuclear generation capacity.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain above 25% annually over the next 12 months, and the forward P/E of 14.0x should compress toward 10x as earnings catch up with the revenue trajectory.
Counter62% of revenue depends on natural gas commodity pricing, which is subject to rapid and unpredictable swings; a decline in natural gas prices or a warm winter could materially reduce both revenue and earnings within a single quarter.
Vistra has missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with a -76.52% miss in Q1 2026 (actual $0.54 versus expected $2.30) and average negative surprise of -10.87% — a pattern that raises serious questions about management's ability to provide reliable guidance in a commodity-driven business.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings should beat or match consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters to reverse the miss pattern, and the magnitude of surprises should remain above -10% to demonstrate improving earnings predictability.
CounterThe one beat in the most recent quarter was large at +53.35%, suggesting the misses were tied to timing of commodity price movements rather than deteriorating operations, and the business may be normalizing around a more predictable earnings trajectory.
The stock is in a falling-knife pattern below all moving averages, with the 200-day MA declining at -4.0% over 30 days, RSI at 38, and bearish MACD — the setup type is explicitly flagged as FALLING_KNIFE, which describes a stock in a high-momentum downtrend without a clear floor.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- For the technical thesis to recover, the stock should find support above $142 (the stop-loss level) and RSI should recover above 45 within 60 days, indicating selling pressure is exhausting.
CounterFalling knife patterns with confirmed death crosses in stocks carrying high leverage (debt-to-equity penalty triggered) have historically extended further than expected, and the 3-miss earnings streak provides fundamental justification for the downtrend.
Analysts target $202.76 — representing 32.1% upside from the current $153.52 — with a sentiment score of 8.2/10 driven by 47% upside projection and high analyst coverage confidence, but a debt-to-equity ratio that triggers a -1.5 leverage penalty flag is a structural constraint on the upside realization.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should remain above $190 over the next 12 months, and the company should demonstrate debt reduction or improved debt-to-earnings coverage to remove the leverage penalty.
CounterHigh leverage in a commodity business with volatile earnings creates a scenario where analyst upside targets could be rapidly cut following a bad quarter; the 32% upside is not net of the leverage risk embedded in the capital structure.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vistra Corp is an independent power producer with 43% revenue growth, a forward P/E of 14.0x, and 32% analyst upside to $202.76 — but the stock has crossed into a death cross pattern below all moving averages, missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and carries a debt-to-equity ratio that imposes a -1.5 leverage penalty, making this a high-upside bet on a technically broken chart.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 5.8 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 1.7 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 43%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 21% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 43% YoY
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 8.9 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $5,252,027 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 5.1 |
| implied vol | 3.3 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 1.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 60%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Dividend: 61.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.22
Upside
+27.6%
Downside
12.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.41>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.22 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.1, and Value at 8.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Catalyst at 3.9, and Technical at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Ai Power Demand
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the AI power demand tailwind is decelerating faster than expected.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, extending the miss pattern through a second full year.
- P3Death Cross Falling Knife Pattern
Trip ifStock price falls below $130, more than 15% below the current $153.52, indicating the falling knife pattern has accelerated without a reversal.
- P4Analyst Upside Vs Leverage Risk
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $170, more than 10% below the current target of $202.76, indicating broad analyst confidence is eroding.