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VRRMVerra Mobility CorporationBuy Wait5.8·$4.38+3.79%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Verra Mobility trades at $4.98 with a forward P/E of 4.8x and PEG ratio of 0.19, placing it in the attractively valued tier on nearly every metric, while a confirmed death cross, capitulation-level RSI near 18, and 136% implied volatility reflect a stock in acute technical distress that must stabilize before the value thesis can be realized.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value MultiplesStable
  • Return On Equity QualityStable
  • Death Cross Capitulation SignalStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5AI GATE: FLAGGED — 6 risksModerate Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Wait for pullback to $4.27. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $4.38. Engine's entry $4.27 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility technology solutions — toll management, photo enforcement, and parking — through three segments: Government Solutions (47% of 2025 revenue), Commercial Services (45%), and Parking Solutions (8%). It sells to rental car companies, fleet... Read more

$4.38+97.9% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#12 of 46 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield8.25%
Entry $4.27(support + ATR)Stop $4.00Target $8.45(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.8:1
Analyst target$9.71+121.8%7 analysts
$8.45our TP
$4.38price
$9.71mean
$28

Wait for pullback to $4.27. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $4.38. Engine's entry $4.27 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.4 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (3.4) - hard block. Wait for improvement. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=technology 7/10). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.2
P/E (Fwd)4.2
Mkt Cap$653M
EV/EBITDA4.7
Profit Mgn13.4%
ROE45.9%
Rev Growth0.1%
Beta0.42
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.04bullish
IV129%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerNYCDOT18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'NYCDOT represented approximately 17.9% and 15.8% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-3 Commercial Services customers35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Three of our Commercial Services customers collectively accounted for 34.8% and 36.0% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    David Roberts departed as President and CEO effective May 31, 2026. Jonathan Keyser (age 44, EVP/Chief Transformation Officer since 2025, Chief Legal Officer since Dec 2022) appointed Interim President and CEO. No reason cited for Roberts' departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.4
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -14.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 6.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Technology 7/10RecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.12Resistance $5.21

Price Targets

$4
$4
$8
A.Upside+92.9%
A.R:R6.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %2%
Max %4%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 3.4 < 4.5 minimum
! 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (3.4) - hard block
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VRRM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $4.27. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross), recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $4.38. Engine's entry $4.27 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 3.4 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (3.4) - hard block. Wait for improvement. Target $8.45 (+92.9%), stop $4.00 (−9.5%), A.R:R 6.8:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VRRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.45 (+97.9% upside). Target $8.45 (+92.9%), stop $4.00 (−9.5%), A.R:R 6.8:1. Stop-loss: $4.00.

What are the risks of investing in VRRM?

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Negative momentum.

Is VRRM overvalued or undervalued?

Verra Mobility Corporation trades at a P/E of 5.2 (forward 4.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about VRRM?

13 analysts cover VRRM with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Verra Mobility Corporation do?Verra Mobility provides smart mobility technology solutions — toll management, photo enforcement, and parking — through...

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility technology solutions — toll management, photo enforcement, and parking — through three segments: Government Solutions (47% of 2025 revenue), Commercial Services (45%), and Parking Solutions (8%). It sells to rental car companies, fleet operators, and government agencies in the U.S., Australia, Europe, and Canada, with 1,901 employees at December 31, 2025.

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