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VRRMVerra Mobility CorporationSell6.2·$4.05+3.86%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Verra Mobility trades at $4.98 with a forward P/E of 4.8x and PEG ratio of 0.19, placing it in the attractively valued tier on nearly every metric, while a confirmed death cross, capitulation-level RSI near 18, and 136% implied volatility reflect a stock in acute technical distress that must stabilize before the value thesis can be realized.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value MultiplesStable
  • Return On Equity QualityStable
  • Death Cross Capitulation SignalImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $4.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility technology solutions — toll management, photo enforcement, and parking — through three segments: Government Solutions (47% of 2025 revenue), Commercial Services (45%), and Parking Solutions (8%). It sells to rental car companies, fleet... Read more

$4.05+111.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#9 of 46 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield8.76%
Stop $3.77Target $8.58(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 11.1:1
Analyst target$9.86+143.4%7 analysts
$8.58our TP
$4.05price
$9.86mean
$28

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $4.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 40. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.8
P/E (Fwd)4.0
Mkt Cap$615M
EV/EBITDA4.6
Profit Mgn13.4%
ROE45.9%
Rev Growth0.1%
Beta0.43
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV91%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerNYCDOT18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'NYCDOT represented approximately 17.9% and 15.8% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-3 Commercial Services customers35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Three of our Commercial Services customers collectively accounted for 34.8% and 36.0% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    David Roberts departed as President and CEO effective May 31, 2026. Jonathan Keyser (age 44, EVP/Chief Transformation Officer since 2025, Chief Legal Officer since Dec 2022) appointed Interim President and CEO. No reason cited for Roberts' departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 11.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.87Resistance $4.75

Price Targets

$4
$9
A.Upside+111.7%
A.R:R11.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VRRM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $4.05 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 40. Prior stop was $3.77. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VRRM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.58 (+111.7% upside). Prior stop was $3.77. Stop-loss: $3.77.

What are the risks of investing in VRRM?

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is VRRM overvalued or undervalued?

Verra Mobility Corporation trades at a P/E of 4.8 (forward 4.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VRRM?

13 analysts cover VRRM with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Verra Mobility Corporation do?Verra Mobility provides smart mobility technology solutions — toll management, photo enforcement, and parking — through...

Verra Mobility provides smart mobility technology solutions — toll management, photo enforcement, and parking — through three segments: Government Solutions (47% of 2025 revenue), Commercial Services (45%), and Parking Solutions (8%). It sells to rental car companies, fleet operators, and government agencies in the U.S., Australia, Europe, and Canada, with 1,901 employees at December 31, 2025.

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