Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 7.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.85
- ▸Attractively valued
VNT · Why this verdict
Why Vontier (VNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward price-to-earnings of 8.0x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.88 alongside a peer-leading valuation rank indicate the stock offers significant value relative to its cash-generating capacity, with analysts implying 38% upside to a consensus target. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings stays below 12x over the next 12 months, maintaining the valuation discount. | →Stable |
| CounterBelow-the-200-day-moving-average positioning with declining analyst estimates suggests the apparent valuation discount may be a value trap if earnings revisions accelerate to the downside. | ||
A return on equity of 35% and a Piotroski financial-strength score of 7 out of 9 reflect that Vontier generates strong returns on shareholder capital, with operating margins and quality scores ranking above average within its peer group. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 25% over the next 12 months, sustaining the high-return characteristic. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh return on equity in a company with significant debt-to-equity leverage can be amplified by financial engineering rather than operational excellence, creating fragility in a rising rate environment. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates have been trending downward, the most recent quarter produced a 17% miss, and estimates for the business are declining, indicating that the near-term earnings trajectory is weakening relative to prior expectations. Earnings | Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, signaling the estimate decline has bottomed. | →Stable |
| CounterThree of the four prior quarters delivered positive surprises of 1-10%, and the May 2026 miss may have been a one-time event; the baseline remains a mostly beat-oriented company. | ||
Despite the price trading below the 200-day moving average with that average declining at 4.4% per month, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, forming a recovery-setup pattern that could lead the price back above trend. Momentum breakdown | Stock price rises above its 200-day moving average and holds above it for at least 20 consecutive trading days within the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRecovering MACD in a downtrend often produces false signals; the confirmed downtrend at minus 4.4% slope per month is severe enough that it typically requires multiple months to reverse. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 8.0x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.88 alongside a peer-leading valuation rank indicate the stock offers significant value relative to its cash-generating capacity, with analysts implying 38% upside to a consensus target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings stays below 12x over the next 12 months, maintaining the valuation discount.
CounterBelow-the-200-day-moving-average positioning with declining analyst estimates suggests the apparent valuation discount may be a value trap if earnings revisions accelerate to the downside.
A return on equity of 35% and a Piotroski financial-strength score of 7 out of 9 reflect that Vontier generates strong returns on shareholder capital, with operating margins and quality scores ranking above average within its peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 25% over the next 12 months, sustaining the high-return characteristic.
CounterHigh return on equity in a company with significant debt-to-equity leverage can be amplified by financial engineering rather than operational excellence, creating fragility in a rising rate environment.
Analyst earnings estimates have been trending downward, the most recent quarter produced a 17% miss, and estimates for the business are declining, indicating that the near-term earnings trajectory is weakening relative to prior expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, signaling the estimate decline has bottomed.
CounterThree of the four prior quarters delivered positive surprises of 1-10%, and the May 2026 miss may have been a one-time event; the baseline remains a mostly beat-oriented company.
Despite the price trading below the 200-day moving average with that average declining at 4.4% per month, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, forming a recovery-setup pattern that could lead the price back above trend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock price rises above its 200-day moving average and holds above it for at least 20 consecutive trading days within the next 6 months.
CounterRecovering MACD in a downtrend often produces false signals; the confirmed downtrend at minus 4.4% slope per month is severe enough that it typically requires multiple months to reverse.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vontier Corporation trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 8x with an excellent return on equity of 35% and analyst consensus implying 38% upside, but carries significant debt leverage, declining earnings estimates, the most recent quarter missed estimates, and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day moving average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 5.4 |
| Op margin | 7.2 |
| Net margin | 6.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 71% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 1.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 35.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.74
Upside
+23.1%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -40% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.74 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Sentiment at 8.0, and Quality at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Growth at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Low Forward Pe Valuation
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 14x while earnings estimates continue declining, indicating valuation expansion without earnings support.
- P2High Return On Equity Quality
Trip ifReturn on equity drops below 20% in any reported quarter over the next 12 months.
- P3Earnings Estimate Decline Trend
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, suggesting the estimate revision cycle has not bottomed.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Recovery Setup
Trip if200-day moving average slope falls below minus 6% per month, indicating an acceleration of the downtrend.