Universal Corporation converts free cash flow at 200% of net income and carries a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, but 3 consecutive earnings misses with a devastating average surprise of -46%, an extremely elevated put-to-call ratio of 28, and weak overall growth make this a fragile position.
Thesis pillars
- Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Analyst Upside With Weak Growth→Stable
- Earnings Miss Deterioration→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Universal Corporation (UVV) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $51.97 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Concentration risk — Customer: top five customers.
Universal Corporation is a global business-to-business agriproducts company operating through two segments: Tobacco Operations, the world's leading leaf tobacco supplier procuring and processing flue-cured, burley, dark air-cured, and oriental tobacco for manufacturers, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $51.97 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Concentration risk — Customer: top five customers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Universal Corporation
About Universal Corporation
Universal Corporation generated approximately $2.9 billion in consolidated revenue in fiscal 2026 across two segments: Tobacco Operations, the world's leading leaf tobacco supplier, and Ingredients Operations, a plant-based ingredients platform. Sales to the company's top five customers exceeded 50% of consolidated revenue in each of the past three fiscal years, with Imperial Brands plc and Philip Morris International each accounting for 10% or more of fiscal 2026 revenue. Universal operates in more than 30 countries across five continents with over 25,000 employees, more than half of them seasonal.
Tobacco Operations revenue comes from selling green, processed, and packed leaf tobacco the company sources under contracts with farmers negotiated one to two years ahead of a crop, plus processing fees on tobacco owned by third parties and fees for services like custom blending and reconstituted leaf manufacturing; processing plants run seven to nine months a year and inventories peak in succession by region. Ingredients Operations spans three subsidiaries with distinct specialties: FruitSmart supplies fruit and vegetable juices and concentrates from Washington State, Silva processes over 70 types of dehydrated vegetables, fruits, and herbs sourced from more than 20 countries, and Universal Ingredients–Shank's makes botanical extracts and flavors with particular expertise in vanilla from its Lancaster, Pennsylvania campus. In leaf tobacco, Universal's only global-scale competitor is Pyxus International; both companies depend on a small number of large, partially vertically-integrated cigarette manufacturers that also compete with Universal to buy leaf tobacco directly from farmers.
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Universal's tobacco business is structurally tied to a handful of cigarette manufacturers rather than diversified across many buyers: the 10-K states the company is 'heavily reliant on a few large customers' and warns that the loss of one, or a significant increase in a customer's own vertical integration into direct farmer sourcing, could materially reduce sales. That risk is concentrated further because Universal's major customers are themselves consolidating and partially vertically integrated, meaning they compete with Universal for the same farmers even as they remain among its largest buyers — a dynamic that ties Universal's growth prospects to decisions made by a small number of counterparties it does not control.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
From Universal Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Universal Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Universal Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga May 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Universal Q4 Adj. EPS $(0.46) Misses $1.08 Estimate, Sales $715.243M Miss $728.200M Estimate — benzinga May 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Universal Increases Its Quarterly Cash Dividend From $0.82 To $0.83 — benzinga May 19, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T13:32:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop five customers10-K Item 1: 'Sales to our top five customers, with whom we have long-standing relationships, have accounted for more than 50% of our consolidated revenues for each of the past three fiscal years.'
- LOWCustomerImperial Brands plc10-K Item 1: 'For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, each of Imperial Brands plc and Philip Morris International Inc., including their respective affiliates, accounted for 10% or more of our revenues.'
- LOWCustomerPhilip Morris International Inc.10-K Item 1: 'For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, each of Imperial Brands plc and Philip Morris International Inc., including their respective affiliates, accounted for 10% or more of our revenues.'
- MEDIUMSupplierraw materials sourced from a limited number of regions10-K Item 1A: 'Many of our plant-based ingredients product lines are manufactured at a single location or require raw materials that are currently sourced from a limited number of regions.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $51.97 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Concentration risk — Customer: top five customers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $49.79. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $62.90 (+21.9% upside). Prior stop was $49.79. Stop-loss: $49.79.
Concentration risk — Customer: top five customers; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 4.6/10.
Universal Corporation trades at a P/E of 39.7 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
What does Universal Corporation do?Universal Corporation is a global business-to-business agriproducts company operating through two segments: Tobacco...
Universal Corporation is a global business-to-business agriproducts company operating through two segments: Tobacco Operations, the world's leading leaf tobacco supplier procuring and processing flue-cured, burley, dark air-cured, and oriental tobacco for manufacturers, and Ingredients Operations, which supplies plant-based ingredients like fruit and vegetable concentrates, dehydrated products, and botanical extracts. The company generated approximately $2.9 billion in consolidated revenues in fiscal 2026, with its top five customers accounting for more than 50% of that revenue.