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UBSUBS Group AG RegisteredSell5.3·$53.63-0.19%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

UBS Group offers attractive valuation at 12x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.90 and rising on-balance volume above its 200-day moving average, but having already exceeded its analyst price target by 15.5%, the stock offers no near-term asymmetric entry point.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation 12x ForwardStable
  • Above 200 Day Volume AccumulationDeteriorating
  • Piotroski 7 Strong MarginsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

UBS Group AG Registered (UBS) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $53.63 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away).

UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-Core and Legacy. The Global Wealth Management segment offers financial services,... Read more

$53.63-12.8% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#17 of 19 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.04%(5y avg 2.14%)Payout69.51%
Stop $51.87Target $61.67(default +15%)A.R:R -2.6:1
Analyst target$55.03+2.6%3 analysts
$61.67our TP
$53.63price
$55.03mean
$50
$63

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $53.63 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202675d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.8% away)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.2
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$176.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn17.9%
ROE10.7%
Rev Growth14.6%
Beta0.83
Dividend2.04%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV46%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Value Rank
3.4
Growth Rank
3.7

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -2.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $51.35Resistance $54.22

Price Targets

$52
$62
A.Upside-12.8%
A.R:R-2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.8% upside)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UBS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $53.63 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.8% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $51.87. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UBS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $61.67 (-12.8% upside). Prior stop was $51.87. Stop-loss: $51.87.

What are the risks of investing in UBS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.8% away); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is UBS overvalued or undervalued?

UBS Group AG Registered trades at a P/E of 34.2 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UBS?

25 analysts cover UBS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $55.

What does UBS Group AG Registered do?UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth...

UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide. It operates through five segments: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-Core and Legacy. The Global Wealth Management segment offers financial services, advice, and solutions; investment management, estate planning, and corporate advice services; and wealth management and banking products and services to private wealth and institutional customers. Its Personal & Corporate Banking segment provides banking, retirement, financing, investments, and strategic transactions to private, corporate, and institutional customers through its branch network and digital channels in Switzerland. The Asset Management segment offers diversified asset management services. Its Investment Bank segment provides equities, foreign exchange, precious metals, research, advisory, and capital markets services to institutional, corporate, financial sponsor, and Global Wealth Management customers, as well as focused rates and credit platform. The company also offers lending products, such as securities-based lending, mortgages, structured products, and tailored solutions; collateralized lending residential and commercial real estate, primarily against securities, residential and commercial real estate, other real assets (such as ships and aircraft), private market and hedge fund interest; and unsecured lending. The company was formerly known as UBS AG and changed its name to UBS Group AG in December 2014. UBS Group AG was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

Related stocks: JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) · C (Citigroup, Inc.) · BAC (Bank of America Corporation) · MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,) · BCS (Barclays PLC)
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