Should you buy Texas Instruments (TXN)?
Updated
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
- Earnings Beat Streak Growth↓Deteriorating
- China Concentration Geopolitical Risk↓Deteriorating
- Analog Moat High Roe→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analog Moat High Roe
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Growth
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3China Concentration Geopolitical Risk
Trip ifChina-directed revenue falls below 35% of total as a result of export restrictions affecting more than 20% of the current product portfolio.
- P4Premium Valuation Above TargetTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $280, more than 10% below the current $313.34, on downward analyst target revisions or earnings guidance cuts.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is HOLD_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 6.3/10 at $249.10. The C-path quality+growth combination cleared its gates — quality 8.6 and growth 9.1 — with 3.08 asymmetric R:R supporting the read.
On the bull side: V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.6 in RISK_OFF); High-quality business; Strong growth profile. On the bear side: Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Active engine warnings: L3:NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING, V9 Gate Failed: MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5.
The engine is not issuing fresh-money entry targets at the current verdict. The technical entry zone is around — with a technical stop near $240.69 for existing positions. Asymmetric R:R is 3.08, below the threshold (≥2.0) at which the engine would actively flag fresh capital. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
HOLD flips toward BUY_WAIT if momentum at 4.5 vs threshold 4.5 clears AND a co-confirming gate triggers. HOLD flips toward SELL if any of the currently-passing gates drop below threshold OR three or more dimensions fall below 4 simultaneously.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates TXN — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.6 in RISK_OFF)
- ▸High-quality business
- ▸Strong growth profile
Bear case
- ▸Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%)
- ▸Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%)
- ▸Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8