Value
9.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
TV · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Televisa (TV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.9x with a PEG ratio near zero and an enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple that scores a perfect 10 out of 10, making it one of the most deeply discounted media companies in the universe relative to earnings and cash flow. Valuation breakdown | The stock reaches at least $3.45, the analyst consensus target, representing 18% appreciation from the current $2.93 within the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely cheap valuations in legacy Mexican media companies often reflect secular disruption risk from streaming and declining pay-television penetration rather than a temporary discount. | ||
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a bullish MACD, while RSI at 56 is constructive, producing momentum scores that are among the strongest in the current batch at 7.5. Momentum breakdown | Positive momentum is sustained with RSI remaining above 50 and the stock holding above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 more months. | →Stable |
| CounterPositive momentum in a declining-revenue media company may reflect short-covering or speculative rotation rather than genuine fundamental buyers. | ||
Earnings results have been extremely volatile, including a positive surprise of 12,546% in the most recent quarter followed by a negative 3,632% miss, which indicates that the earnings base is highly sensitive to non-recurring items and one-time charges that make reliable forecasting very difficult. Earnings | Earnings per share stabilizes within a band of plus or minus 30% of consensus estimates for at least 3 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme earnings volatility in the most recent four quarters may reflect a one-time restructuring or asset sale; underlying recurring earnings could be far more predictable than the historical data suggests. | ||
Revenue has declined by 3% year over year and business quality scores are below the minimum floor at 3.4, reflecting weak returns on equity and assets alongside deteriorating operating fundamentals that make the valuation discount hard to unlock. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 2% year over year within the next 2 reported annual periods. | →Stable |
| CounterMedia conglomerates in Latin America benefit from advertising cycles tied to elections and major sporting events; a revenue recovery tied to cyclical ad spend could come faster than organic subscriber trends suggest. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.9x with a PEG ratio near zero and an enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple that scores a perfect 10 out of 10, making it one of the most deeply discounted media companies in the universe relative to earnings and cash flow.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches at least $3.45, the analyst consensus target, representing 18% appreciation from the current $2.93 within the next 12 months.
CounterExtremely cheap valuations in legacy Mexican media companies often reflect secular disruption risk from streaming and declining pay-television penetration rather than a temporary discount.
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a bullish MACD, while RSI at 56 is constructive, producing momentum scores that are among the strongest in the current batch at 7.5.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Positive momentum is sustained with RSI remaining above 50 and the stock holding above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 more months.
CounterPositive momentum in a declining-revenue media company may reflect short-covering or speculative rotation rather than genuine fundamental buyers.
Earnings results have been extremely volatile, including a positive surprise of 12,546% in the most recent quarter followed by a negative 3,632% miss, which indicates that the earnings base is highly sensitive to non-recurring items and one-time charges that make reliable forecasting very difficult.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share stabilizes within a band of plus or minus 30% of consensus estimates for at least 3 consecutive quarters.
CounterExtreme earnings volatility in the most recent four quarters may reflect a one-time restructuring or asset sale; underlying recurring earnings could be far more predictable than the historical data suggests.
Revenue has declined by 3% year over year and business quality scores are below the minimum floor at 3.4, reflecting weak returns on equity and assets alongside deteriorating operating fundamentals that make the valuation discount hard to unlock.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 2% year over year within the next 2 reported annual periods.
CounterMedia conglomerates in Latin America benefit from advertising cycles tied to elections and major sporting events; a revenue recovery tied to cyclical ad spend could come faster than organic subscriber trends suggest.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Grupo Televisa is extremely cheap at a forward P/E of 7.9x with a PEG near zero and strong price momentum above its 200-day moving average, but below-floor business quality, 2 of 4 earnings misses, and declining revenue in the core media business offset the valuation appeal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $756,874 (0.054% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 1.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 5.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 10.00
- ▸High IV: 77%
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 341.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.03
Upside
+26.0%
Downside
8.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.7, Technical at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Peer rank at 3.1, and Quality at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Valuation Discount
Trip ifStock price drops below $2.50, more than 14% below the current $2.93, on continued downward fundamental revisions.
- P2Positive Technical Momentum
Trip ifStock price drops below the 200-day moving average and RSI falls below 40 for more than 10 consecutive trading days.
- P3Earnings Volatility Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 50% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Revenue Decline Quality Floor
Trip ifRevenue declines by more than 5% year over year in any reported period over the next 12 months.