Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.51
- ▸Attractively valued
TIMB · Why this verdict
Why TIM (TIMB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TIM S.A. trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 10.2x with a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 and 16% operating margins, but thin upside of only 4.3% and low asymmetry keep new entry unattractive at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2x and a price-to-sales ratio among the highest-rated in the sector, TIM S.A. offers below-average multiples for a business delivering 16% net margins and strong free cash flow quality. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands to at least 12x over 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount to peers. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEmerging market telecom companies often carry structural valuation discounts due to currency risk, regulatory pressure, and lower growth expectations, limiting multiple expansion. | ||
TIM S.A. earns a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, posts net margins of 16%, and generates strong free cash flow quality at 7.2 out of 10, placing it among the best-in-class margin performers in its peer group. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 14% and Piotroski score stays at or above 7 out of 9 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWeak revenue growth at a low score and limited earnings growth momentum suggest margins may be near their ceiling without a meaningful top-line acceleration. | ||
Rising on-balance volume and a positive MACD reading indicate underlying accumulation despite the stock trading below the 200-day moving average, which is still trending upward at 2.8% per 30 days — signaling a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a breakdown. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope remains positive for at least 6 of the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at 42 and a position below the 200-day moving average confirm near-term weakness, and accumulation signals can persist without leading to price recovery in range-bound markets. | ||
Three of the last four quarters resulted in earnings beats with an average positive surprise of approximately 10%, and the most recent miss of -10% was modest, suggesting a broadly intact track record of meeting or beating expectations. Earnings | Beat count reaches at least 3 out of the next 4 quarters and the average surprise percentage stays above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth scores are weak with earnings growth registered near the bottom of the range, and the most recent quarter missed by 10%, suggesting the beat streak may be under pressure. | ||
With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2x and a price-to-sales ratio among the highest-rated in the sector, TIM S.A. offers below-average multiples for a business delivering 16% net margins and strong free cash flow quality.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands to at least 12x over 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount to peers.
CounterEmerging market telecom companies often carry structural valuation discounts due to currency risk, regulatory pressure, and lower growth expectations, limiting multiple expansion.
TIM S.A. earns a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, posts net margins of 16%, and generates strong free cash flow quality at 7.2 out of 10, placing it among the best-in-class margin performers in its peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 14% and Piotroski score stays at or above 7 out of 9 over the next 12 months.
CounterWeak revenue growth at a low score and limited earnings growth momentum suggest margins may be near their ceiling without a meaningful top-line acceleration.
Rising on-balance volume and a positive MACD reading indicate underlying accumulation despite the stock trading below the 200-day moving average, which is still trending upward at 2.8% per 30 days — signaling a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a breakdown.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope remains positive for at least 6 of the next 12 months.
CounterRSI at 42 and a position below the 200-day moving average confirm near-term weakness, and accumulation signals can persist without leading to price recovery in range-bound markets.
Three of the last four quarters resulted in earnings beats with an average positive surprise of approximately 10%, and the most recent miss of -10% was modest, suggesting a broadly intact track record of meeting or beating expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat count reaches at least 3 out of the next 4 quarters and the average surprise percentage stays above 5%.
CounterGrowth scores are weak with earnings growth registered near the bottom of the range, and the most recent quarter missed by 10%, suggesting the beat streak may be under pressure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.8 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 9.9 |
| Net margin | 7.9 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 9.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $151,200 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 3.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
- ▸High IV: 86%
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 8.9%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:62d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.13
Upside
+14.6%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.13 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Peer rank at 7.1, and Quality at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Growth at 3.2, and Insider at 4.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Telecom Valuation
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple falls below 8x, more than 20% lower than the current 10.2x, confirming multiple compression rather than expansion.
- P2Strong Margin Quality Profile
Trip ifNet margin falls below 12%, decreasing by more than 25% from the current 16% level, indicating structural margin deterioration.
- P3Rising Obv Accumulation
Trip ifOn-balance volume falls for more than 60 consecutive days and price drops below $21, more than 5% below current levels.
- P4Earnings Beat History
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming a reversal of the predominantly positive beat track record.