Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 5.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.40
- ▸Attractively valued
TIMB · Why this verdict
Why TIM (TIMB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TIM S.A. trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 10.2x with a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9 and 16% operating margins, but thin upside of only 4.3% and low asymmetry keep new entry unattractive at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2x and a price-to-sales ratio among the highest-rated in the sector, TIM S.A. offers below-average multiples for a business delivering 16% net margins and strong free cash flow quality. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands to at least 12x over 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount to peers. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEmerging market telecom companies often carry structural valuation discounts due to currency risk, regulatory pressure, and lower growth expectations, limiting multiple expansion. | ||
TIM S.A. earns a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, posts net margins of 16%, and generates strong free cash flow quality at 7.2 out of 10, placing it among the best-in-class margin performers in its peer group. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 14% and Piotroski score stays at or above 7 out of 9 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWeak revenue growth at a low score and limited earnings growth momentum suggest margins may be near their ceiling without a meaningful top-line acceleration. | ||
Rising on-balance volume and a positive MACD reading indicate underlying accumulation despite the stock trading below the 200-day moving average, which is still trending upward at 2.8% per 30 days — signaling a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a breakdown. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope remains positive for at least 6 of the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI at 42 and a position below the 200-day moving average confirm near-term weakness, and accumulation signals can persist without leading to price recovery in range-bound markets. | ||
Three of the last four quarters resulted in earnings beats with an average positive surprise of approximately 10%, and the most recent miss of -10% was modest, suggesting a broadly intact track record of meeting or beating expectations. Earnings | Beat count reaches at least 3 out of the next 4 quarters and the average surprise percentage stays above 5%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth scores are weak with earnings growth registered near the bottom of the range, and the most recent quarter missed by 10%, suggesting the beat streak may be under pressure. | ||
With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2x and a price-to-sales ratio among the highest-rated in the sector, TIM S.A. offers below-average multiples for a business delivering 16% net margins and strong free cash flow quality.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands to at least 12x over 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount to peers.
CounterEmerging market telecom companies often carry structural valuation discounts due to currency risk, regulatory pressure, and lower growth expectations, limiting multiple expansion.
TIM S.A. earns a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, posts net margins of 16%, and generates strong free cash flow quality at 7.2 out of 10, placing it among the best-in-class margin performers in its peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 14% and Piotroski score stays at or above 7 out of 9 over the next 12 months.
CounterWeak revenue growth at a low score and limited earnings growth momentum suggest margins may be near their ceiling without a meaningful top-line acceleration.
Rising on-balance volume and a positive MACD reading indicate underlying accumulation despite the stock trading below the 200-day moving average, which is still trending upward at 2.8% per 30 days — signaling a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a breakdown.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope remains positive for at least 6 of the next 12 months.
CounterRSI at 42 and a position below the 200-day moving average confirm near-term weakness, and accumulation signals can persist without leading to price recovery in range-bound markets.
Three of the last four quarters resulted in earnings beats with an average positive surprise of approximately 10%, and the most recent miss of -10% was modest, suggesting a broadly intact track record of meeting or beating expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat count reaches at least 3 out of the next 4 quarters and the average surprise percentage stays above 5%.
CounterGrowth scores are weak with earnings growth registered near the bottom of the range, and the most recent quarter missed by 10%, suggesting the beat streak may be under pressure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.8 |
| Op margin | 9.7 |
| Net margin | 8.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 2.6 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 6.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $187,444 (0.002% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
- ▸Dividend: 6.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.03
Upside
-0.2%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 8d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.5; weakest: Growth at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, and Momentum at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 3.3, Technical at 3.8, and Sentiment at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Telecom Valuation
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple falls below 8x, more than 20% lower than the current 10.2x, confirming multiple compression rather than expansion.
- P2Strong Margin Quality Profile
Trip ifNet margin falls below 12%, decreasing by more than 25% from the current 16% level, indicating structural margin deterioration.
- P3Rising Obv Accumulation
Trip ifOn-balance volume falls for more than 60 consecutive days and price drops below $21, more than 5% below current levels.
- P4Earnings Beat History
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming a reversal of the predominantly positive beat track record.