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TENTsakos Energy Navigation LtdHold7.0·$37.37+5.65%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Tsakos Energy Navigation earns a composite score of 7.3 out of 10, has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 31%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times, and generates strong margins of 25% — but forward earnings are projected to decline 52% from the current trailing level as the tanker cycle peaks, and the put-to-call ratio of 27.4 is extremely elevated.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Earnings Beat At ValueStable
  • Cyclical Earnings Peak RiskStable
  • Extreme Put Call Ratio WarningStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd (TEN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~52% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 4.6%.

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services in Greece and internationally. The company owns and operates various vessels, including VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, Panamax, Handysize, MR, LNG... Read more

$37.37+4.6% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#1 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.35%(5y avg 3.35%)Payout26.10%sustainable
Stop $34.75Target $39.10(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$46.00+23.1%2 analysts
$39.10our TP
$37.37price
$46.00mean
$50

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~52% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 4.6%. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Sep 10, 202668d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~52% (cyclical peak)
Thin upside margin: 4.6%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.1
P/E (Fwd)12.7
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn24.8%
ROE11.6%
Rev Growth28.4%
Beta-0.27
Dividend5.35%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.1
Volume
2.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 68d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.89Resistance $41.35

Price Targets

$35
$39
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 13x vs trail 6x (2.1x)
! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-10 (68d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TEN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~52% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 4.6%. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $39.10 (+4.6%), stop $34.75 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TEN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.10 (+4.6% upside). Target $39.10 (+4.6%), stop $34.75 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $34.75.

What are the risks of investing in TEN?

Earnings expected to decline ~52% (cyclical peak); Thin upside margin: 4.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Is TEN overvalued or undervalued?

Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd trades at a P/E of 6.1 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TEN?

7 analysts cover TEN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd do?Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides seaborne crude oil and petroleum product...

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services in Greece and internationally. The company owns and operates various vessels, including VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, Panamax, Handysize, MR, LNG carrier, and shuttle DP2 tankers. It also provides marine transportation services for national, major, and other independent oil companies and refiners. The company was formerly known as MIF Limited and changed its name to Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited in July 2001. Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Athens, Greece.

Related stocks: LPG (Dorian LPG Ltd.) · STNG (Scorpio Tankers Inc.) · DHT (DHT Holdings, Inc.) · INSW (International Seaways, Inc.) · CMBT (CMB.TECH NV)
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