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TCOMTrip.com Group LimitedBuy Wait5.9·$40.83-0.41%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Trip.com has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters — including a 245% positive surprise in one quarter — with 21% revenue growth, a wide economic moat, 53% gross margins, and a forward price-to-earnings of just 10.1 times, making it one of the most favorably valued high-quality growth names in travel services, though near-term technical momentum is negative.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat High Margin PlatformStable
  • Sustained Earnings Beat CatalystStable
  • Undervalued Growth At DiscountStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitAI GATE: FLAGGED — 1 risk, 1 concernModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Wait for pullback to $39.00. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $40.83. Engine's entry $39.00 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts... Read more

$40.83+40.9% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 14 Travel Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.57%Payout0.00%sustainable
Entry $39.00(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $35.17Target $55.04(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.7:1
Analyst target$61.16+49.8%29 analysts
$55.04our TP
$40.83price
$61.16mean
$75

Wait for pullback to $39.00. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $40.83. Engine's entry $39.00 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.3 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (1.3) - hard block. Wait for improvement. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=consumer cyclical 1/10). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 24, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Weak growth
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.2
P/E (Fwd)9.6
Mkt Cap$25.8B
EV/EBITDA-1.3
Profit Mgn48.6%
ROE20.1%
Rev Growth17.2%
Beta-0.03
Dividend0.57%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$25-38.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.1
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
6.8
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Consumer Cyclical 1/10Falling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $38.04Resistance $48.83

Price Targets

$35
$39
$55
A.Upside+34.8%
A.R:R3.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.4%
Max %2.7%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 1.3 < 4.5 minimum
! 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (1.3) - hard block
! momentum at 1.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-24 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TCOM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $39.00. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $40.83. Engine's entry $39.00 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.3 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (1.3) - hard block. Wait for improvement. Target $55.04 (+34.8%), stop $35.17 (−16.1%), A.R:R 3.7:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TCOM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.04 (+40.9% upside). Target $55.04 (+34.8%), stop $35.17 (−16.1%), A.R:R 3.7:1. Stop-loss: $35.17.

What are the risks of investing in TCOM?

Weak growth; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TCOM overvalued or undervalued?

Trip.com Group Limited trades at a P/E of 6.2 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TCOM?

31 analysts cover TCOM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Trip.com Group Limited do?Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation,...

Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.

Related stocks: BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc. Common St) · EXPE (Expedia Group, Inc.) · RCL (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.) · GBTG (Global Business Travel Group, I) · VIK (Viking Holdings Ltd)
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