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TCOMTrip.com Group LimitedSell6.9·$47.10-0.23%
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Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $47.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts... Read more

$47.10+47.3% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#1 of 15 Travel Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.37%
IncomeYield0.57%Payout4.57%sustainable
Stop $44.58Target $69.29(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 9.0:1
Analyst target$76.98+63.4%29 analysts
$69.29our TP
$47.10price
$76.98mean
$92

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $47.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-10
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jun 17, 20268d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.7
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$29.7B
EV/EBITDA-0.5
Profit Mgn53.3%
ROE21.1%
Rev Growth20.8%
Beta-0.06
Dividend0.57%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV60%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.5
Macd
6.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 9.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $45.92Resistance $53.37

Price Targets

$45
$69
A.Upside+47.1%
A.R:R9.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-17 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TCOM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $47.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $44.58. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TCOM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.29 (+47.3% upside). Prior stop was $44.58. Stop-loss: $44.58.

What are the risks of investing in TCOM?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TCOM overvalued or undervalued?

Trip.com Group Limited trades at a P/E of 6.7 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TCOM?

31 analysts cover TCOM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $77.

What does Trip.com Group Limited do?Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation,...

Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. It acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. The company also provides travelers bundled packaged-tour products, such as group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, it offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; and user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, the company provides Trip.Biz, a digital first, full-service, corporate travel management business which provides technology-enabled solutions for organizations managing business travel. Additionally, it offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services; Omni-Channel Touchpoints for Users; and Open Platform for Ecosystem Partners. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion, and Skyscanner brand names. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.

Related stocks: BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc. Common St) · EXPE (Expedia Group, Inc.) · RCL (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.) · CCL (Carnival Corporation Ltd.) · TNL (Travel Leisure Co.)
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