Value
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
STRZ · Why this verdict
Why Starz Entertainment (STRZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality sits below the engine's floor at 2.8 versus a 4.0 minimum, compounded by margin compression (operating margin -1.6%) and declining revenue of -7%. Bear case | Revenue growth should turn positive and operating margin should climb above 0% over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum notes show the stock trading above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation, suggesting near-term price action is not yet reflecting the fundamental weakness. | ||
Modest insider selling of $346,592 (0.071% of market cap) contributes to a bearish insider signal, alongside value-trap notes flagging material insider selling representing 7.55% of market cap. Insider breakdown | Net insider selling should narrow and the insider signal should shift from bearish toward neutral over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe dollar value of selling is modest relative to market cap, and insider transactions can reflect diversification rather than a loss of confidence. | ||
The asymmetry gate failed at -0.63, and the prior target-reached signal shows only -9.0% remaining upside, meaning the risk/reward has turned unfavorable after a prior run. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should recover above 1.0 as either the price pulls back or a higher analyst target emerges. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum remains constructive at 6.0, above the engine's 5.5 threshold, showing the stock's near-term technical trend is still intact. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 2.62 combined with high implied volatility of 100% signals the options market is pricing meaningful downside risk or hedging demand. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 as directional conviction firms up. | →Stable |
| CounterCatalyst notes show earnings estimates rising 5.2% over the past 30 days, a positive fundamental signal that could offset the bearish options positioning. | ||
Quality sits below the engine's floor at 2.8 versus a 4.0 minimum, compounded by margin compression (operating margin -1.6%) and declining revenue of -7%.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and operating margin should climb above 0% over the next several quarters.
CounterMomentum notes show the stock trading above its 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation, suggesting near-term price action is not yet reflecting the fundamental weakness.
Modest insider selling of $346,592 (0.071% of market cap) contributes to a bearish insider signal, alongside value-trap notes flagging material insider selling representing 7.55% of market cap.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Net insider selling should narrow and the insider signal should shift from bearish toward neutral over the next two quarters.
CounterThe dollar value of selling is modest relative to market cap, and insider transactions can reflect diversification rather than a loss of confidence.
The asymmetry gate failed at -0.63, and the prior target-reached signal shows only -9.0% remaining upside, meaning the risk/reward has turned unfavorable after a prior run.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should recover above 1.0 as either the price pulls back or a higher analyst target emerges.
CounterMomentum remains constructive at 6.0, above the engine's 5.5 threshold, showing the stock's near-term technical trend is still intact.
An elevated put/call ratio of 2.62 combined with high implied volatility of 100% signals the options market is pricing meaningful downside risk or hedging demand.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 as directional conviction firms up.
CounterCatalyst notes show earnings estimates rising 5.2% over the past 30 days, a positive fundamental signal that could offset the bearish options positioning.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Starz Entertainment shows insider selling and a below-floor quality score against declining revenue, with a negative asymmetry read after the prior target was reached and options positioning tilted defensively.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.8/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.2 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 3.3 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $346,592 (0.071% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 3.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.62
- ▸High IV: 109%
Catalyst
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 5.2% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.82
Upside
-12.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Sentiment at 6.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.2, Momentum at 5.7, and Value at 4.8; the weakest are Growth at 0.7, Quality at 2.8, and Catalyst at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Insider Selling Bearish Signal
Trip ifInsider signal stays BEARISH with net selling exceeding $500,000 over the next 90 days.
- P2Quality Floor Breach Declining Revenue
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Target Reached
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio stays below 0, unchanged from the current -0.63 reading.
- P4Elevated Options Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio stays above 3.0 for 2 consecutive weeks.