Value
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.0 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
SRAD · Why this verdict
Why Sportradar Group (SRAD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Sportradar generates free cash flow equal to 416% of net income, one of the strongest cash conversion ratios in the software sector, indicating that non-cash charges (likely amortization of data rights and acquired intangibles) are masking the underlying cash generation strength of the business. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 250% over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming that the cash generation advantage is structural and driven by the amortization-heavy nature of data rights businesses. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow to net income ratio in a data-rights business typically reflects heavy prior-period investment in content rights that appear as amortization expenses; if Sportradar must re-invest at similar rates to maintain rights, the cash flow is effectively already spoken for as sustaining capital. | ||
Analysts hold strong conviction with a rating score of 9.0 out of 10 and consensus price targets implying 35% upside from the current $15.96 toward $19.35, supported by positive news sentiment at +0.60 and strong recent LLM sentiment score of 8.0 out of 10. Sentiment breakdown | Consensus price target remains above $18.00 and the stock closes at least 25% of the gap to targets within 12 months, reaching $18 or higher, as sports data contract wins and margin improvement attract institutional buyers. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses (August 2025: -66% and April 2026: -119%) despite high analyst conviction indicate that the professional community is persistently too optimistic about near-term profitability; the April 2026 miss of -119% is particularly severe and may trigger target cuts. | ||
Of the last 4 quarters, Sportradar missed analyst estimates in 2 quarters (August 2025 by -66% and April 2026 by -119%), producing an average earnings surprise of -22% across all periods, which directly contradicts the high analyst rating and suggests persistent over-optimism in earnings models. Earnings | Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with average surprise rising above -5%, as the company resets guidance to more achievable levels and demonstrates better cost control. | →Stable |
| CounterMisses of -66% and -119% in two of four quarters suggest structural rather than episodic execution gaps; a company that misses by these magnitudes likely lacks reliable financial planning processes or faces sports-media rights headwinds that are difficult to predict. | ||
Leverage stands at debt-to-equity of 6.9 — the highest penalty in the bear case at -1.5 — and the stock is in a death-cross recovery pattern where the moving average convergence-divergence is improving but the 200-day moving average is still declining at -10.4% per month, making the recovery thesis more speculative than confirmed. Bear case | The 200-day moving average slope flattens to less than -5% per month within 3 months and debt-to-equity begins declining toward 5.0 or below as operating cash flows are used to reduce obligations, confirming both technical and financial stabilization. | →Stable |
| CounterA -10.4% monthly slope on the 200-day moving average combined with debt-to-equity of 6.9 creates a dual headwind where financial stress could limit the company's ability to invest in the rights and technology needed to sustain the growth story during the technical downtrend. | ||
Sportradar generates free cash flow equal to 416% of net income, one of the strongest cash conversion ratios in the software sector, indicating that non-cash charges (likely amortization of data rights and acquired intangibles) are masking the underlying cash generation strength of the business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 250% over the next 4 reported quarters, confirming that the cash generation advantage is structural and driven by the amortization-heavy nature of data rights businesses.
CounterHigh free cash flow to net income ratio in a data-rights business typically reflects heavy prior-period investment in content rights that appear as amortization expenses; if Sportradar must re-invest at similar rates to maintain rights, the cash flow is effectively already spoken for as sustaining capital.
Analysts hold strong conviction with a rating score of 9.0 out of 10 and consensus price targets implying 35% upside from the current $15.96 toward $19.35, supported by positive news sentiment at +0.60 and strong recent LLM sentiment score of 8.0 out of 10.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Consensus price target remains above $18.00 and the stock closes at least 25% of the gap to targets within 12 months, reaching $18 or higher, as sports data contract wins and margin improvement attract institutional buyers.
CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses (August 2025: -66% and April 2026: -119%) despite high analyst conviction indicate that the professional community is persistently too optimistic about near-term profitability; the April 2026 miss of -119% is particularly severe and may trigger target cuts.
Of the last 4 quarters, Sportradar missed analyst estimates in 2 quarters (August 2025 by -66% and April 2026 by -119%), producing an average earnings surprise of -22% across all periods, which directly contradicts the high analyst rating and suggests persistent over-optimism in earnings models.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with average surprise rising above -5%, as the company resets guidance to more achievable levels and demonstrates better cost control.
CounterMisses of -66% and -119% in two of four quarters suggest structural rather than episodic execution gaps; a company that misses by these magnitudes likely lacks reliable financial planning processes or faces sports-media rights headwinds that are difficult to predict.
Leverage stands at debt-to-equity of 6.9 — the highest penalty in the bear case at -1.5 — and the stock is in a death-cross recovery pattern where the moving average convergence-divergence is improving but the 200-day moving average is still declining at -10.4% per month, making the recovery thesis more speculative than confirmed.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope flattens to less than -5% per month within 3 months and debt-to-equity begins declining toward 5.0 or below as operating cash flows are used to reduce obligations, confirming both technical and financial stabilization.
CounterA -10.4% monthly slope on the 200-day moving average combined with debt-to-equity of 6.9 creates a dual headwind where financial stress could limit the company's ability to invest in the rights and technology needed to sustain the growth story during the technical downtrend.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Sportradar is recovering from a death-cross pattern with strong analyst conviction implying 35% upside and exceptional free cash flow at 416% of net income, but 2 of the last 3 earnings were misses and high leverage at debt-to-equity of 6.9 limits financial flexibility in a still-recovering technical trend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.3 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 416% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 7.6 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $11,324,661 (0.255% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.7 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 7.00
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.02
Upside
+27.4%
Downside
9.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -53% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.02 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.9, Growth at 7.7, and Value at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, Peer rank at 3.3, and Catalyst at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Fcf Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 150% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the cash conversion advantage is diminishing as sustaining capital requirements increase.
- P2High Analyst Conviction Upside
Trip ifConsensus analyst price target falls below $14.00, more than 12% below the current price, indicating broad downward revisions are invalidating the high-conviction upside thesis.
- P3Earnings Miss Execution Concern
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -50% in any single quarter, or misses occur in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming that execution problems are structural rather than isolated.
- P4High Leverage Death Cross Recovery
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 8.0, more than 15% higher than the current 6.9, indicating leverage is increasing rather than stabilizing as the company grows.