Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.36
- ▸Attractively valued
Updated
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Sonoco Products offers compelling valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 7.9 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.33, and strong price momentum with rising volume accumulation, but inconsistent earnings delivery and a 52% international revenue exposure create meaningful execution risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Sonoco trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 7.9 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.33, which the value analysis flags as attractively valued, with analyst consensus implying roughly 21% upside from the current $50.35 price. Valuation breakdown | The stock closes at least half of the gap to consensus price targets, reaching $58 or higher within 12 months, as the valuation discount compresses toward the peer median. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA weak Piotroski financial strength score of 3 out of 9 and revenue declining roughly 2% year-over-year suggest that cheap valuation may be warranted rather than a buying opportunity. | ||
Both on-balance volume and the moving average convergence-divergence indicator are positive, confirming volume-backed buying interest, and the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average, a technical condition consistent with institutional accumulation. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues rising and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 12 months, signaling sustained demand. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith the asymmetry ratio at only 0.59 (upside 5.2% vs. downside 8.8%), the stock has limited room to run before hitting the analyst target, making momentum a weak catalyst for new buyers. | ||
Of the last four reported quarters, Sonoco missed analyst earnings estimates in 2 quarters and came in exactly at consensus in 1 more, producing an essentially flat average earnings surprise of -0.05% — a weak track record for a value candidate. Earnings | Earnings surprise turns consistently positive, with the company beating consensus by more than 3% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as cost efficiencies from restructuring materialize. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two misses (August and October 2025 at -5.65% and -0.31%) and flat trend suggest management is struggling to predict its own results, which is common in packaging businesses facing input-cost volatility. | ||
International operations account for roughly 52% of Sonoco's business, creating significant exposure to foreign currency fluctuations and geographic concentration risk that the bear case identifies as the primary structural concern. Bear case | Revenue from international segments grows at least 2% in constant-currency terms over the next year, demonstrating resilience to currency headwinds and geographic volatility. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA strengthening US dollar or regional slowdowns in key international markets could disproportionately reduce reported earnings, adding volatility to an already uncertain earnings trajectory. | ||
CounterA weak Piotroski financial strength score of 3 out of 9 and revenue declining roughly 2% year-over-year suggest that cheap valuation may be warranted rather than a buying opportunity.
CounterWith the asymmetry ratio at only 0.59 (upside 5.2% vs. downside 8.8%), the stock has limited room to run before hitting the analyst target, making momentum a weak catalyst for new buyers.
CounterThe two misses (August and October 2025 at -5.65% and -0.31%) and flat trend suggest management is struggling to predict its own results, which is common in packaging businesses facing input-cost volatility.
CounterA strengthening US dollar or regional slowdowns in key international markets could disproportionately reduce reported earnings, adding volatility to an already uncertain earnings trajectory.
| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.7 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.2 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 6.8 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 6.7 |
| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.4 |
| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.2 |
| days to cover | 2.4 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDSetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 8.2 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Insider at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Quality at 4.1, Growth at 4.3, and Catalyst at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.14 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings expands above 12x without revenue growth returning above 0%, indicating the valuation gap has closed before business fundamentals justified it.
Trip ifOn-balance volume falls below its 90-day average for more than 8 consecutive weeks, signaling distribution overtaking accumulation.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -3% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, confirming persistent execution weakness.
Trip ifReported international revenue declines by more than 5% year-over-year in any single reported quarter.