Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.6x
- ▸PEG: 2.36
SN · Why this verdict
Why SharkNinja (SN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SharkNinja has delivered a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with an average surprise of 11.8%, backed by an excellent 29% return on equity and wide economic moat, but the stock trades above analyst consensus targets with negative asymmetry — making the quality case compelling while the current entry point is not.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
SharkNinja earns a 29% return on equity, carries wide economic moat designation, and achieves a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, reflecting a high-quality business with durable competitive advantages in consumer appliances. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 20% over the next 12 months, confirming the moat is generating sustained excess returns. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion is only 31% of net income, which is a red flag suggesting reported earnings significantly overstate the actual cash being generated. | ||
SharkNinja ranks best-in-class on margins and top-quartile on return on equity relative to peers in the furnishings and appliances sector, suggesting a structural competitive advantage rather than a cyclical profit surge. Peer-rank breakdown | The company maintains or improves its sector-leading margin position over the next 12 months, with operating margins staying above current peers. | →Stable |
| CounterThe volume of goods sold is falling on a distribution basis (falling on-balance volume), which may foreshadow weakening sell-through as consumer spending normalizes. | ||
SharkNinja has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 11.8% and a peak quarterly surprise of 21.9%, reflecting a consistent pattern of beating and raising expectations. Earnings | The company extends its beat streak through at least 2 more consecutive quarters, maintaining average surprises above 5%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA perfect beat streak can create an expectation trap where any inline result disappoints the market, and the stock already trades above its near-term resistance target of $136.71. | ||
The stock trades above its analyst consensus target of $136.71 with negative 2.3% upside, meaning investors entering at current prices face a negative expected return relative to consensus fair value estimates. Bear case | Analyst targets are revised upward above $160 over the next 12 months, restoring a positive reward-to-risk profile of at least 1.5x. | →Stable |
| CounterA cluster of 4 recent analyst upgrades in news activity suggests the analyst community may be in the process of revising estimates higher, which would quickly restore upside from current levels. | ||
SharkNinja earns a 29% return on equity, carries wide economic moat designation, and achieves a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, reflecting a high-quality business with durable competitive advantages in consumer appliances.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 20% over the next 12 months, confirming the moat is generating sustained excess returns.
CounterFree cash flow conversion is only 31% of net income, which is a red flag suggesting reported earnings significantly overstate the actual cash being generated.
SharkNinja ranks best-in-class on margins and top-quartile on return on equity relative to peers in the furnishings and appliances sector, suggesting a structural competitive advantage rather than a cyclical profit surge.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The company maintains or improves its sector-leading margin position over the next 12 months, with operating margins staying above current peers.
CounterThe volume of goods sold is falling on a distribution basis (falling on-balance volume), which may foreshadow weakening sell-through as consumer spending normalizes.
SharkNinja has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 11.8% and a peak quarterly surprise of 21.9%, reflecting a consistent pattern of beating and raising expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company extends its beat streak through at least 2 more consecutive quarters, maintaining average surprises above 5%.
CounterA perfect beat streak can create an expectation trap where any inline result disappoints the market, and the stock already trades above its near-term resistance target of $136.71.
The stock trades above its analyst consensus target of $136.71 with negative 2.3% upside, meaning investors entering at current prices face a negative expected return relative to consensus fair value estimates.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised upward above $160 over the next 12 months, restoring a positive reward-to-risk profile of at least 1.5x.
CounterA cluster of 4 recent analyst upgrades in news activity suggests the analyst community may be in the process of revising estimates higher, which would quickly restore upside from current levels.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.8 |
| ROA | 8.6 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 2.4 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 29%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 31% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.4 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
Insider
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $469,494,882 (2.275% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.8 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.4 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:2.27%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.66
Upside
-4.5%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 12d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:2.27%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.66 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.1, Sentiment at 6.9, and Quality at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Growth at 4.5, and Value at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the established beat streak pattern.
- P2Wide Moat High Return On Equity
Trip ifReturn on equity drops below 20% in any reported fiscal year, indicating the economic moat is weakening.
- P3Best In Class Peer Margins
Trip ifOperating margin declines to below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the competitive margin advantage is eroding.
- P4Analyst Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $155, restoring at least 15% upside from the current price of $133.