Value
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.3 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.46
SN · Why this verdict
Why SharkNinja (SN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
SharkNinja earns a 29% return on equity, carries wide economic moat designation, and achieves a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, reflecting a high-quality business with durable competitive advantages in consumer appliances. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 20% over the next 12 months, confirming the moat is generating sustained excess returns. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion is only 31% of net income, which is a red flag suggesting reported earnings significantly overstate the actual cash being generated. | ||
SharkNinja ranks best-in-class on margins and top-quartile on return on equity relative to peers in the furnishings and appliances sector, suggesting a structural competitive advantage rather than a cyclical profit surge. Peer-rank breakdown | The company maintains or improves its sector-leading margin position over the next 12 months, with operating margins staying above current peers. | →Stable |
| CounterThe volume of goods sold is falling on a distribution basis (falling on-balance volume), which may foreshadow weakening sell-through as consumer spending normalizes. | ||
SharkNinja has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 11.8% and a peak quarterly surprise of 21.9%, reflecting a consistent pattern of beating and raising expectations. Earnings | The company extends its beat streak through at least 2 more consecutive quarters, maintaining average surprises above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect beat streak can create an expectation trap where any inline result disappoints the market, and the stock already trades above its near-term resistance target of $136.71. | ||
The stock trades above its analyst consensus target of $136.71 with negative 2.3% upside, meaning investors entering at current prices face a negative expected return relative to consensus fair value estimates. Bear case | Analyst targets are revised upward above $160 over the next 12 months, restoring a positive reward-to-risk profile of at least 1.5x. | →Stable |
| CounterA cluster of 4 recent analyst upgrades in news activity suggests the analyst community may be in the process of revising estimates higher, which would quickly restore upside from current levels. | ||
SharkNinja earns a 29% return on equity, carries wide economic moat designation, and achieves a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, reflecting a high-quality business with durable competitive advantages in consumer appliances.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 20% over the next 12 months, confirming the moat is generating sustained excess returns.
CounterFree cash flow conversion is only 31% of net income, which is a red flag suggesting reported earnings significantly overstate the actual cash being generated.
SharkNinja ranks best-in-class on margins and top-quartile on return on equity relative to peers in the furnishings and appliances sector, suggesting a structural competitive advantage rather than a cyclical profit surge.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The company maintains or improves its sector-leading margin position over the next 12 months, with operating margins staying above current peers.
CounterThe volume of goods sold is falling on a distribution basis (falling on-balance volume), which may foreshadow weakening sell-through as consumer spending normalizes.
SharkNinja has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 11.8% and a peak quarterly surprise of 21.9%, reflecting a consistent pattern of beating and raising expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company extends its beat streak through at least 2 more consecutive quarters, maintaining average surprises above 5%.
CounterA perfect beat streak can create an expectation trap where any inline result disappoints the market, and the stock already trades above its near-term resistance target of $136.71.
The stock trades above its analyst consensus target of $136.71 with negative 2.3% upside, meaning investors entering at current prices face a negative expected return relative to consensus fair value estimates.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised upward above $160 over the next 12 months, restoring a positive reward-to-risk profile of at least 1.5x.
CounterA cluster of 4 recent analyst upgrades in news activity suggests the analyst community may be in the process of revising estimates higher, which would quickly restore upside from current levels.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SharkNinja has delivered a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with an average surprise of 11.8%, backed by an excellent 29% return on equity and wide economic moat, but the stock trades above analyst consensus targets with negative asymmetry — making the quality case compelling while the current entry point is not.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.8 |
| ROA | 8.6 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 5.3 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 2.4 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 29%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 31% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.4 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $29,551,830 (0.138% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.8 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 30.68
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.4 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.72
Upside
-10.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.72 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Quality at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Insider at 3.3, Value at 4.3, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the established beat streak pattern.
- P2Wide Moat High Return On Equity
Trip ifReturn on equity drops below 20% in any reported fiscal year, indicating the economic moat is weakening.
- P3Best In Class Peer Margins
Trip ifOperating margin declines to below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the competitive margin advantage is eroding.
- P4Analyst Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $155, restoring at least 15% upside from the current price of $133.