Value
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
SLDE · Why this verdict
Why Slide Insurance Holdings (SLDE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score7.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
RSI has fallen to 29, below the 200-day moving average, with volume distribution turning negative — signals typically associated with capitulation or forced selling that create oversold entry conditions if the underlying business quality is intact. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 and on-balance volume returns to an upward trend within 6 months, indicating the selling pressure has exhausted itself. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 29 in a falling stock can persist for many months if a structural negative catalyst — such as a large insurance loss event — causes investors to reassess the company's risk profile. | ||
Slide Insurance generated a 60% return on equity with 39% net margins, 157% free cash flow conversion relative to net income, and an 8 out of 9 Piotroski F-Score, placing it among the highest-quality businesses in the property and casualty insurance universe. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 40% and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming the high-quality earnings profile. | →Stable |
| CounterProperty and casualty insurance profitability is highly correlated with catastrophe losses; a major hurricane or wildfire season could compress margins sharply from these elevated levels. | ||
Slide Insurance beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 37.1%, including a 58% beat in the third quarter and a 40.5% beat in the fourth quarter, demonstrating that management is consistently and meaningfully setting achievable guidance. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 20% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarly-stage insurers in growth mode can beat low analyst estimates simply by ramping premium volume faster than expected; the key risk is whether loss ratios worsen as the portfolio scales into higher-risk geographies. | ||
Trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 4.7 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.13, with analyst consensus implying 52% upside to approximately $25, Slide Insurance appears materially undervalued relative to its earnings power and growth rate. Valuation breakdown | Stock price reaches at least $21, representing the analyst consensus target, within 12 months as the quality-momentum divergence resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall insurers with heavy Florida or Gulf Coast exposure can remain cheap indefinitely because investors demand large valuation discounts for catastrophe-correlated earnings. | ||
RSI has fallen to 29, below the 200-day moving average, with volume distribution turning negative — signals typically associated with capitulation or forced selling that create oversold entry conditions if the underlying business quality is intact.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and on-balance volume returns to an upward trend within 6 months, indicating the selling pressure has exhausted itself.
CounterAn RSI of 29 in a falling stock can persist for many months if a structural negative catalyst — such as a large insurance loss event — causes investors to reassess the company's risk profile.
Slide Insurance generated a 60% return on equity with 39% net margins, 157% free cash flow conversion relative to net income, and an 8 out of 9 Piotroski F-Score, placing it among the highest-quality businesses in the property and casualty insurance universe.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 40% and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming the high-quality earnings profile.
CounterProperty and casualty insurance profitability is highly correlated with catastrophe losses; a major hurricane or wildfire season could compress margins sharply from these elevated levels.
Slide Insurance beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 37.1%, including a 58% beat in the third quarter and a 40.5% beat in the fourth quarter, demonstrating that management is consistently and meaningfully setting achievable guidance.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 20% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarly-stage insurers in growth mode can beat low analyst estimates simply by ramping premium volume faster than expected; the key risk is whether loss ratios worsen as the portfolio scales into higher-risk geographies.
Trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 4.7 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.13, with analyst consensus implying 52% upside to approximately $25, Slide Insurance appears materially undervalued relative to its earnings power and growth rate.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock price reaches at least $21, representing the analyst consensus target, within 12 months as the quality-momentum divergence resolves.
CounterSmall insurers with heavy Florida or Gulf Coast exposure can remain cheap indefinitely because investors demand large valuation discounts for catastrophe-correlated earnings.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Slide Insurance has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 37%, earns a 60% return on equity, and trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 4.7 times — an elite quality score temporarily held back by weak near-term price momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 60%
- ▸Strong margins: 39%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 157% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 9.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (2.6x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $84,965,588 (3.490% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 9.7 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| debt equity | 1.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 9.80
- ▸High IV: 68%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.7>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:3.49%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.21
Upside
+3.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Quality at 9.2, and Value at 8.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.9, and Insider at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Profitability 60pct Roe
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 30% in any reported annual period.
- P2Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Deep Value At 4x Forward Earnings
Trip ifStock price drops below $14, more than 15% below the current price of $16.62.
- P4Momentum Weakness Oversold
Trip ifRSI remains below 30 for more than 30 consecutive calendar days.