Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 5.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.46
- ▸Attractively valued
SHEL · Why this verdict
Why Shell (SHEL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Shell beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $3.86 versus $3.67 in the latest report, with only one miss on 2026-02-05. Last 4 quarters | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates, with the average surprise staying above 0% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe February miss was 11.8% and the 2025 January miss was 19.7%, so energy earnings are volatile and a miss could recur. | ||
A forward P/E of 9.9x and an attractive valuation score on price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA make Shell inexpensive for an integrated energy major. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 12x while earnings hold. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA PEG of 1.76 is not cheap versus growth, and the peer value rank is just 4.2/10, so Shell is not the cheapest in its group. | ||
The price of $108.69 sits 10.2% above the $97.63 analyst target (upside of -10.2%), so the stock offers limited further upside and risk exceeds reward. Bear case | Analyst targets should rise toward the price, or the price should consolidate, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEnergy price moves can lift earnings estimates quickly, so analysts may simply be lagging a strong earnings run. | ||
The setup is a breakout: golden cross, above all moving averages, RSI near 70 and rising on-balance volume, with price 0.6% from its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the $104.79 stop level and keep making higher highs. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeing at the top of the 52-week range with RSI near 70 raises the risk of a pullback of about 12.8% to the stop level. | ||
Growth is strong at 36% YoY with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a debt/equity score of 8.5, showing improving fundamentals with low leverage. Growth breakdown | Revenue should stay above the $92.8B latest quarter level, toward the $111B next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue data is provisional and the 36% growth reflects a commodity-price swing that can reverse. | ||
Shell beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $3.86 versus $3.67 in the latest report, with only one miss on 2026-02-05.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates, with the average surprise staying above 0% over the next 12 months.
CounterThe February miss was 11.8% and the 2025 January miss was 19.7%, so energy earnings are volatile and a miss could recur.
A forward P/E of 9.9x and an attractive valuation score on price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA make Shell inexpensive for an integrated energy major.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 12x while earnings hold.
CounterA PEG of 1.76 is not cheap versus growth, and the peer value rank is just 4.2/10, so Shell is not the cheapest in its group.
The price of $108.69 sits 10.2% above the $97.63 analyst target (upside of -10.2%), so the stock offers limited further upside and risk exceeds reward.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise toward the price, or the price should consolidate, over the next 12 months.
CounterEnergy price moves can lift earnings estimates quickly, so analysts may simply be lagging a strong earnings run.
The setup is a breakout: golden cross, above all moving averages, RSI near 70 and rising on-balance volume, with price 0.6% from its 52-week high.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the $104.79 stop level and keep making higher highs.
CounterBeing at the top of the 52-week range with RSI near 70 raises the risk of a pullback of about 12.8% to the stop level.
Growth is strong at 36% YoY with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a debt/equity score of 8.5, showing improving fundamentals with low leverage.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should stay above the $92.8B latest quarter level, toward the $111B next-quarter estimate.
CounterRevenue data is provisional and the 36% growth reflects a commodity-price swing that can reverse.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.8 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 7.5 |
| Net margin | 5.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 36% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| put call | 4.7 |
| implied vol | 7.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $60
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.69
Upside
-3.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Technical at 8.2, and Value at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Peer rank at 4.9, and Quality at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.69 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 14x from the current 9.9x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifThe analyst target falls more than 15% below the current $97.63.
- P4Breakout Momentum Near HighTripped
Trip ifPrice drops to below $104.79 on a closing basis.
- P5Strong Growth Balance Sheet
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $70B from the latest $92.8B.