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SGUStar Group L.P.Sell6.0·$12.88+0.00%
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Star Group L.P. (SGU) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.88: Earnings expected to decline ~66% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (4.8% away).

Star Group, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, provides home heating oil and propane products and services to residential and commercial customers in the United States. It offers gasoline and diesel fuel; and installs, maintains, and repairs heating and air conditioning... Read more

$12.88-0.2% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#5 of 18 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-4.35%
IncomeYield6.13%(5y avg 5.65%)Payout28.79%sustainable
Stop $12.34Target $12.86(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.88: Earnings expected to decline ~66% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (4.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 67%
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~66% (cyclical peak)
Near 52-week high (4.8% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.0
P/E (Fwd)14.6
Mkt Cap$423M
EV/EBITDA4.2
Profit Mgn5.3%
ROE24.9%
Rev Growth3.2%
Beta0.31
Dividend6.13%
Rating analysts5

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV200%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.27Resistance $13.12

Price Targets

$12
$13
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 15x vs trail 5x (2.9x)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.88: Earnings expected to decline ~66% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (4.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $12.34. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.86 (-0.2% upside). Prior stop was $12.34. Stop-loss: $12.34.

What are the risks of investing in SGU?

Earnings expected to decline ~66% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (4.8% away); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is SGU overvalued or undervalued?

Star Group L.P. trades at a P/E of 5.0 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGU?

5 analysts cover SGU with a consensus score of 4.0/5.

What does Star Group L.P. do?Star Group, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, provides home heating oil and propane products and services to...

Star Group, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, provides home heating oil and propane products and services to residential and commercial customers in the United States. It offers gasoline and diesel fuel; and installs, maintains, and repairs heating and air conditioning equipment and ancillary services. As of September 30, 2025, the company served approximately 406,400 full-service residential and commercial home heating oil and propane customers and 63,200 customers on a delivery only basis. It sells gasoline and diesel fuel to approximately 27,700 customers. The company was formerly known as Star Gas Partners, L.P. and changed its name to Star Group, L.P. in October 2017. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Stamford, Connecticut.

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