Value
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
SFNC · Why this verdict
Why Simmons First National Corporat (SFNC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Simmons First National Corporation shows strong earnings growth of 24% year-over-year and a breakout technical pattern, but its quality score has fallen below minimum acceptable thresholds with a Piotroski F-Score of only 5.6 and zero competitive moat, making it an exit candidate despite attractive growth metrics.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The overall quality score of 2.9 out of 10 is below the minimum acceptable threshold of 4.0, with zero competitive moat and weak returns on equity and assets, indicating the bank lacks the structural advantages needed to sustain above-average performance. Warnings | Quality score improves to above 4.0 within 12 months as efficiency initiatives and revenue growth translate into better profitability ratios. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional bank quality metrics are heavily penalized by the current interest rate environment; some of these metrics could improve substantially if rates stabilize or decline. | ||
Revenue grew 24% year-over-year and the stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, but the Piotroski F-Score of only 5.6 out of 9 and weak return metrics indicate this growth is not yet reflected in financial quality improvements. Growth breakdown | Piotroski F-Score improves to 7 or higher over the next 12 months as earnings growth translates into stronger balance sheet and return metrics. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue growth of 24% in a regional bank often reflects loan portfolio expansion rather than organic business improvement; credit quality deterioration could quickly reverse the quality picture. | ||
The golden cross breakout with RSI at 58 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms genuine buying momentum, but the stock has already traded above its analyst price target by 6.8%, leaving almost no room for reward relative to downside risk. Chart pattern detection | Analyst price targets are revised above $24 within 12 months as the earnings growth thesis attracts broader analyst coverage. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBreakout momentum in small regional banks can carry stocks well above analyst targets before reversing; the technical signal may matter more than the tight upside estimate. | ||
A recent senior officer departure or appointment flagged in a regulatory disclosure introduces leadership uncertainty at a time when the bank is navigating quality improvements and growth integration challenges. Gates warning | No additional senior leadership changes occur within 6 months and the new management team provides clear operational continuity guidance. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLeadership transitions in well-managed regional banks are often routine succession events rather than distress signals; the departure of one officer rarely changes strategic direction meaningfully. | ||
The overall quality score of 2.9 out of 10 is below the minimum acceptable threshold of 4.0, with zero competitive moat and weak returns on equity and assets, indicating the bank lacks the structural advantages needed to sustain above-average performance.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score improves to above 4.0 within 12 months as efficiency initiatives and revenue growth translate into better profitability ratios.
CounterRegional bank quality metrics are heavily penalized by the current interest rate environment; some of these metrics could improve substantially if rates stabilize or decline.
Revenue grew 24% year-over-year and the stock is in a technical breakout with a golden cross, but the Piotroski F-Score of only 5.6 out of 9 and weak return metrics indicate this growth is not yet reflected in financial quality improvements.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score improves to 7 or higher over the next 12 months as earnings growth translates into stronger balance sheet and return metrics.
CounterRevenue growth of 24% in a regional bank often reflects loan portfolio expansion rather than organic business improvement; credit quality deterioration could quickly reverse the quality picture.
The golden cross breakout with RSI at 58 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms genuine buying momentum, but the stock has already traded above its analyst price target by 6.8%, leaving almost no room for reward relative to downside risk.
↓DeterioratingChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised above $24 within 12 months as the earnings growth thesis attracts broader analyst coverage.
CounterBreakout momentum in small regional banks can carry stocks well above analyst targets before reversing; the technical signal may matter more than the tight upside estimate.
A recent senior officer departure or appointment flagged in a regulatory disclosure introduces leadership uncertainty at a time when the bank is navigating quality improvements and growth integration challenges.
↓DeterioratingGates warning
- Expectation
- No additional senior leadership changes occur within 6 months and the new management team provides clear operational continuity guidance.
CounterLeadership transitions in well-managed regional banks are often routine succession events rather than distress signals; the departure of one officer rarely changes strategic direction meaningfully.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.4 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.1 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
Technical
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 7.5 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| beta | 7.5 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 3.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.82
Upside
-4.1%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.0<4.5 outcome against Technical at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.82.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.0, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.6, Quality at 2.7, and Momentum at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Growth Low Quality Base
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the growth momentum has stalled.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Threshold
Trip ifQuality score remains below 4.0 for 2 consecutive reporting periods with no improvement in Piotroski components above 6.
- P3Breakout Momentum Already At Target
Trip ifStock price drops below $20.00, more than 9% below current levels, reversing the breakout signal below the 200-day moving average.
- P4C Suite Change Uncertainty
Trip ifA second senior leadership change is disclosed within 6 months, affecting more than 1 C-level position and creating compounding management uncertainty.