Skip to main content

Simmons First National Corporat (SFNC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.45: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality.

Simmons First National Corporation is a financial holding company with $24.54 billion in total assets, operating Simmons Bank through 222 financial centers in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas. It provides commercial, consumer, and wealth management... Read more

$21.45+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#108 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $20.22Target $21.73(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$23.57+9.9%7 analysts
$21.73our TP
$21.45price
$23.57mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.45: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-3.9% upside)
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-10.4%
Rev Growth24.1%
Beta0.90
Dividend4.05%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
Max Pain$3-88.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicArkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our subsidiary bank operates primarily within the states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate, construction and development, and commercial and industrial loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'Significant portions of our loan portfolio include commercial real estate, construction and development, and commercial and industrial loans'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-03Item 5.02LOW
    On February 27, 2026, Simmons First amended James M. Brogdon's Executive Change in Control Severance Agreement, increasing termination compensation from 2x to 3x Base Period Income. Compensatory arrangement change; no departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-02Item 5.02LOW
    Simmons First disclosed 2026 compensation for president and CEO James M. Brogdon: $900K base salary, 100% target cash incentive, approximately 180% target equity award, approved January 28, 2026. Compensatory arrangement disclosure; no departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Operating Margin
10.0
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
7.9
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.07Resistance $22.17

Price Targets

$20
$22
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFNC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.45: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $20.22. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.73 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $20.22. Stop-loss: $20.22.

What are the risks of investing in SFNC?

Target reached (-3.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is SFNC overvalued or undervalued?

Simmons First National Corporat trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SFNC?

13 analysts cover SFNC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Simmons First National Corporat do?Simmons First National Corporation is a financial holding company with $24.54 billion in total assets, operating...

Simmons First National Corporation is a financial holding company with $24.54 billion in total assets, operating Simmons Bank through 222 financial centers in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas. It provides commercial, consumer, and wealth management banking services to individuals and businesses.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · VLYPO (Valley National Bancorp - 5.5% ) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) · CNOB (ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.) · VLYPP (Valley National Bancorp - 6.25%)