Simmons First National Corporat (SFNC) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the SFNC stock price target?

Take-profit $21.40 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $20.03.

Q: What are the risks of investing in SFNC?

Target reached (-2.0% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0); Target reached (-2.0% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Q: Is SFNC overvalued or undervalued?

Simmons First National Corporat trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about SFNC?

13 analysts cover SFNC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2 days ago (May 19, 2026, 1:51 AM ET)

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Simmons First National Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, operating Simmons Bank with 222 financial centers in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas. With $24.54B in total assets, $17.49B in loans, and $20.18B... Read more

$20.93+2.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#119 of 142 Banks - Regional

QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield—

IncomeYield4.19%(5y avg 3.77%)Payout66.54%

Stop $20.03Target $21.40(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1

Analyst target$23.57+12.6%7 analysts

$21.40our TP

$20.93price

$23.57mean

$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.93: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Simmons First National Corporat

Latest news

Simmons First Ntl Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript — benzinga Apr 17, 2026 neutral
Simmons First Ntl Q1 Adj. EPS $0.47, Inline, Sales $241.365M Miss $242.979M Estimate — benzinga Apr 16, 2026 negative
Earnings Scheduled For April 16, 2026 — benzinga Apr 16, 2026 neutral

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-2.0% upside)

Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)9.4

Mkt Cap$3.0B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn0.0%

ROE-10.4%

Rev Growth24.1%

Beta0.94

Dividend4.19%

Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.18bullish

IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMGeographicArkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas
10-K Item 1A: 'Our concentration of banking activities in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas...makes us more vulnerable'
MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate, construction and development loans
10-K Item 1A: 'Significant portions of our loan portfolio include commercial real estate, construction and development, and commercial and industrial loans, each of which presents heightened lending risks.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-03Item 5.02LOW
Simmons First entered First Amendment to Executive Change in Control Severance Agreement with James M. Brogdon dated February 27, 2026, increasing termination compensation formula from 2x to 3x Base Period Income.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.715%0.70

Quality2.915%0.43

Growth9.215%1.38

Momentum3.610%0.36

Sentiment5.610%0.56

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.210%0.32

Technical Setup7.35%0.36

Risk Profile6.75%0.34

Catalyst6.35%0.32

Overall (Σ contributions)5.28

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Gross Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Moat

4.8

Piotroski F

5.6

Operating Margin

10.0

No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank

0.0

Quality Rank

0.0

Growth Rank

7.9

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv

1.0

Macd

1.5

Volume

1.9

Ma Position

6.0

Rsi

7.7

Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 59d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

38 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.36Resistance $21.84

Price Targets

$20

$21

A.Upside+2.2%

A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.0% upside)

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-16 (59d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SFNC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.93: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $20.03. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.40 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $20.03. Stop-loss: $20.03.

What are the risks of investing in SFNC?

Target reached (-2.0% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is SFNC overvalued or undervalued?

Simmons First National Corporat trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SFNC?

13 analysts cover SFNC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Simmons First National Corporat do?Simmons First National Corporation is a financial holding company headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, operating...