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SFNCSimmons First National CorporatSell5.2·$22.84-1.64%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Simmons First National Corporation shows strong earnings growth of 24% year-over-year and a breakout technical pattern, but its quality score has fallen below minimum acceptable thresholds with a Piotroski F-Score of only 5.6 and zero competitive moat, making it an exit candidate despite attractive growth metrics.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum ThresholdStable
  • Strong Earnings Growth Low Quality BaseStable
  • Breakout Momentum Already At TargetStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Simmons First National Corporat (SFNC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.84: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality.

Simmons First National Corporation provides banking through Simmons Bank's approximately 222 financial centers in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas, with $24.54 billion in total consolidated assets at December 31, 2025. The company generates revenue... Read more

$22.84+0.4% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#195 of 225 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.76%(5y avg 3.80%)Payout66.54%
Stop $21.88Target $22.93(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$23.71+3.8%7 analysts
$22.93our TP
$22.84price
$23.71mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.84: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Simmons First National Corporat

Generated 2026-07-06T06:00:35Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 16, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-9.7% upside)
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-10.4%
Rev Growth24.1%
Beta0.92
Dividend3.76%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV105%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicArkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our concentration of banking activities in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas...makes us more vulnerable to adverse conditions in the particular local markets'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate, construction and development, and commercial and industrial loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'Significant portions of our loan portfolio include commercial real estate, construction and development, and commercial and industrial loans'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOW
    On May 13, 2026, Simmons First shareholders approved the Amended and Restated 2023 Stock and Incentive Plan at the Annual Meeting, increasing authorized shares by 3,550,000 to 7,350,000 total and adding a $750,000 annual cap on non-employee director compensation. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
4.8
Piotroski F
5.6
Operating Margin
10.0
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.1
Growth Rank
7.3
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.98Resistance $23.40

Price Targets

$22
$23
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFNC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.84: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $21.88. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.93 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $21.88. Stop-loss: $21.88.

What are the risks of investing in SFNC?

Target reached (-9.7% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is SFNC overvalued or undervalued?

Simmons First National Corporat trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SFNC?

13 analysts cover SFNC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Simmons First National Corporat do?Simmons First National Corporation provides banking through Simmons Bank's approximately 222 financial centers in...

Simmons First National Corporation provides banking through Simmons Bank's approximately 222 financial centers in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas, with $24.54 billion in total consolidated assets at December 31, 2025. The company generates revenue primarily from net interest income on $17.49 billion in loans, funded by $20.18 billion in deposits from retail, commercial, and wealth customers across its six-state footprint.

Related stocks: NBN (Northeast Bank) · BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · NPB (Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services, I)
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