Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 7.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.88
- ▸Attractively valued
SF · Why this verdict
Why Stifel Financial (SF) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Stifel Financial is an attractively valued capital markets firm with a wide economic moat, a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, and strong financial health, but its death-cross technical pattern and thin 4.3% upside to analyst targets limit near-term entry appeal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has been assessed as having a wide economic moat with compounder-quality characteristics — strong returns on equity combined with consistent growth — supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and 16% net margins. Quality breakdown | The quality score remains above 6.0 and the moat assessment stays intact over the next 12 months as the firm continues to outperform peers on margins. | →Stable |
| CounterCapital markets businesses are highly cyclical; a downturn in M&A or underwriting activity could rapidly compress margins and erode the moat assessment. | ||
Stifel has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.4% — a narrow but consistent beat pattern suggesting management sets achievable guidance and delivers reliably. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the track record of consistent outperformance. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 5.4% average beat suggests thin outperformance that could flip to a miss if capital markets conditions soften, with earnings estimates already factoring in moderate recovery. | ||
With a forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.96, Stifel trades at a discount to the broader financial services sector while ranking in the top quartile of peers on value metrics. Valuation breakdown | Valuation multiples expand toward 13x forward earnings over the next 12 months as the recovery setup plays out. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCapital markets stocks frequently trade at low multiples because earnings are volatile; the current multiple may accurately reflect the cyclical risk rather than represent a discount. | ||
The stock is currently below its 200-day moving average with a death-cross pattern (though MACD is improving), signaling that the longer-term trend remains negative and the recovery setup is unconfirmed. Momentum breakdown | The stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average within 6 months and holds that level, confirming the technical recovery thesis. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe MACD is already improving and RSI is at 54, suggesting the worst of the technical deterioration may be behind the stock with recovery already underway. | ||
The company has been assessed as having a wide economic moat with compounder-quality characteristics — strong returns on equity combined with consistent growth — supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and 16% net margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score remains above 6.0 and the moat assessment stays intact over the next 12 months as the firm continues to outperform peers on margins.
CounterCapital markets businesses are highly cyclical; a downturn in M&A or underwriting activity could rapidly compress margins and erode the moat assessment.
Stifel has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.4% — a narrow but consistent beat pattern suggesting management sets achievable guidance and delivers reliably.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the track record of consistent outperformance.
CounterA 5.4% average beat suggests thin outperformance that could flip to a miss if capital markets conditions soften, with earnings estimates already factoring in moderate recovery.
With a forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.96, Stifel trades at a discount to the broader financial services sector while ranking in the top quartile of peers on value metrics.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation multiples expand toward 13x forward earnings over the next 12 months as the recovery setup plays out.
CounterCapital markets stocks frequently trade at low multiples because earnings are volatile; the current multiple may accurately reflect the cyclical risk rather than represent a discount.
The stock is currently below its 200-day moving average with a death-cross pattern (though MACD is improving), signaling that the longer-term trend remains negative and the recovery setup is unconfirmed.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average within 6 months and holds that level, confirming the technical recovery thesis.
CounterThe MACD is already improving and RSI is at 54, suggesting the worst of the technical deterioration may be behind the stock with recovery already underway.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.8 |
| Net margin | 8.3 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 8.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.9 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $45
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $72.94 vs the analyst target $70.36: -3.5% upside; No upside left.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_D_BALANCED|V8:TARGET_REACHED|SANITY:BUY+upside<=0Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.1>=7.5+momentum=7.7>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.34
Upside
-3.5%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The D-path balanced-high-score trigger fired: quality 8.1 and momentum 7.7 both cleared their gates at R:R of -0.34.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.1, Value at 7.7, and Momentum at 7.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.0, Growth at 3.6, and Insider at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Economic Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifNet margins fall below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the moat and compounder characteristics are deteriorating.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Low Surprise
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the perfect beat streak.
- P3Attractive Valuation Below Peers
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 14x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth above 15% year-over-year.
- P4Death Cross Below 200 Ma
Trip ifStock price falls below $68, more than 7% below current levels, with the 200-day moving average continuing to decline rather than flatten.