Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.01
- ▸Attractively valued
SF · Why this verdict
Why Stifel Financial (SF) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Stifel Financial is an attractively valued capital markets firm with a wide economic moat, a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, and strong financial health, but its death-cross technical pattern and thin 4.3% upside to analyst targets limit near-term entry appeal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has been assessed as having a wide economic moat with compounder-quality characteristics — strong returns on equity combined with consistent growth — supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and 16% net margins. Quality breakdown | The quality score remains above 6.0 and the moat assessment stays intact over the next 12 months as the firm continues to outperform peers on margins. | →Stable |
| CounterCapital markets businesses are highly cyclical; a downturn in M&A or underwriting activity could rapidly compress margins and erode the moat assessment. | ||
Stifel has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.4% — a narrow but consistent beat pattern suggesting management sets achievable guidance and delivers reliably. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the track record of consistent outperformance. | →Stable |
| CounterA 5.4% average beat suggests thin outperformance that could flip to a miss if capital markets conditions soften, with earnings estimates already factoring in moderate recovery. | ||
With a forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.96, Stifel trades at a discount to the broader financial services sector while ranking in the top quartile of peers on value metrics. Valuation breakdown | Valuation multiples expand toward 13x forward earnings over the next 12 months as the recovery setup plays out. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterCapital markets stocks frequently trade at low multiples because earnings are volatile; the current multiple may accurately reflect the cyclical risk rather than represent a discount. | ||
The stock is currently below its 200-day moving average with a death-cross pattern (though MACD is improving), signaling that the longer-term trend remains negative and the recovery setup is unconfirmed. Momentum breakdown | The stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average within 6 months and holds that level, confirming the technical recovery thesis. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterThe MACD is already improving and RSI is at 54, suggesting the worst of the technical deterioration may be behind the stock with recovery already underway. | ||
The company has been assessed as having a wide economic moat with compounder-quality characteristics — strong returns on equity combined with consistent growth — supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and 16% net margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score remains above 6.0 and the moat assessment stays intact over the next 12 months as the firm continues to outperform peers on margins.
CounterCapital markets businesses are highly cyclical; a downturn in M&A or underwriting activity could rapidly compress margins and erode the moat assessment.
Stifel has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.4% — a narrow but consistent beat pattern suggesting management sets achievable guidance and delivers reliably.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the track record of consistent outperformance.
CounterA 5.4% average beat suggests thin outperformance that could flip to a miss if capital markets conditions soften, with earnings estimates already factoring in moderate recovery.
With a forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.96, Stifel trades at a discount to the broader financial services sector while ranking in the top quartile of peers on value metrics.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation multiples expand toward 13x forward earnings over the next 12 months as the recovery setup plays out.
CounterCapital markets stocks frequently trade at low multiples because earnings are volatile; the current multiple may accurately reflect the cyclical risk rather than represent a discount.
The stock is currently below its 200-day moving average with a death-cross pattern (though MACD is improving), signaling that the longer-term trend remains negative and the recovery setup is unconfirmed.
Tripped↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock crosses back above its 200-day moving average within 6 months and holds that level, confirming the technical recovery thesis.
CounterThe MACD is already improving and RSI is at 54, suggesting the worst of the technical deterioration may be behind the stock with recovery already underway.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.6 |
| Net margin | 7.8 |
| Current ratio | 3.5 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $77.16 has reached target $77.53. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.3>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.33
Upside
-4.0%
Downside
12.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $77.16 has reached target $77.53. No upside to wait for. The 10-dimension scores remain Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2, Value at 7.4, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.3, Peer rank at 5.2, and Growth at 6.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Economic Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifNet margins fall below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the moat and compounder characteristics are deteriorating.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Low Surprise
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the perfect beat streak.
- P3Attractive Valuation Below PeersTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 14x without a corresponding increase in earnings growth above 15% year-over-year.
- P4Death Cross Below 200 MaTripped
Trip ifStock price falls below $68, more than 7% below current levels, with the 200-day moving average continuing to decline rather than flatten.