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SEPNSepterna, Inc.Sell4.8·$36.61+1.84%
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Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.61: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Septerna, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral small molecule products for the treatment of endocrinology, immunology and inflammation, and metabolic diseases. It develops PTH1R Program, oral small molecule... Read more

$36.61+8.8% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#119 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.48%
Stop $34.03Target $39.83(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$45.78+25.0%9 analysts
$39.83our TP
$36.61price
$45.78mean
$60

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.61: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-13.5
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA-19.5
Profit Mgn-49.9%
ROE-9.3%
Rev Growth12011.0%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.13bullish
IV88%elevated
Max Pain$21-42.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Volatile — 5.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Days To Cover
1.6
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Short Interest
4.3
Put Call
10.0
High IV: 88%Above max pain $21

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
9.8

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Analyst Target
6.0
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.79Resistance $37.01

Price Targets

$34
$40
A.Upside+8.8%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SEPN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.61: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $34.03. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SEPN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.83 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $34.03. Stop-loss: $34.03.

What are the risks of investing in SEPN?

Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0).

Is SEPN overvalued or undervalued?

Septerna, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SEPN?

15 analysts cover SEPN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Septerna, Inc. do?Septerna, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral...

Septerna, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral small molecule products for the treatment of endocrinology, immunology and inflammation, and metabolic diseases. It develops PTH1R Program, oral small molecule Parathyroid Hormone 1 Receptor agonists for the treatment of hypoparathyroidism; SEP-631, an oral small molecule MRGPRX2 negative allosteric modulator (NAM) for chronic spontaneous urticaria and other mast cell diseases; and TSHR Program, an oral small molecule TSHR NAM for graves' disease and thyroid eye disease. In addition, it focuses on other therapeutic areas, including neurology, women's health, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. It has global collaboration and license agreement with Novo Nordisk to discover, develop and commercialize multiple potential oral small molecule therapies for metabolic-related diseases based on certain specified molecular targets. The company was formerly known as GPCR NewCo, Inc. and changed its name to Septerna Inc. in June 2021. Septerna, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

Related stocks: AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · HALO (Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.) · AAPG (Ascentage Pharma Group Internat) · INVA (Innoviva, Inc.) · ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc)
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