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Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $26.51: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.1): -1.5; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).

Septerna, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral small molecule products for the treatment of endocrinology, immunology and inflammation, and metabolic diseases. It develops PTH1R Program, oral small molecule... Read more

$26.51+45.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#80 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.03%
Stop $24.65Target $38.50(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$44.25+66.9%8 analysts
$38.50our TP
$26.51price
$44.25mean
$60

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $26.51: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.1): -1.5; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Septerna, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Analyst upside: 45%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.1): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-10.6
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA-12.9
Profit Mgn-49.9%
ROE-9.3%
Rev Growth12011.0%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV70%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 7.0>=5.5A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.78Resistance $28.80

Price Targets

$25
$39
A.Upside+45.2%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts14
Consensus4.1/5
Avg Target$44

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SEPN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $26.51: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.1): -1.5; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $24.65. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the SEPN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.50 (+45.2% upside). Prior stop was $24.65. Stop-loss: $24.65.

What are the risks of investing in SEPN?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0); Leverage penalty (D/E 6.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is SEPN overvalued or undervalued?

Septerna, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SEPN?

14 analysts cover SEPN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Septerna, Inc. do?Septerna, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral...

Septerna, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral small molecule products for the treatment of endocrinology, immunology and inflammation, and metabolic diseases. It develops PTH1R Program, oral small molecule Parathyroid Hormone 1 Receptor agonists for the treatment of hypoparathyroidism; SEP-631, an oral small molecule MRGPRX2 negative allosteric modulator (NAM) for chronic spontaneous urticaria and other mast cell diseases; and TSHR Program, an oral small molecule TSHR NAM for graves' disease and thyroid eye disease. In addition, it focuses on other therapeutic areas, including neurology, women's health, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. It has global collaboration and license agreement with Novo Nordisk to discover, develop and commercialize multiple potential oral small molecule therapies for metabolic-related diseases based on certain specified molecular targets. The company was formerly known as GPCR NewCo, Inc. and changed its name to Septerna Inc. in June 2021. Septerna, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

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