Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 3.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.1x
- ▸PEG: 2.92
RUSHA · Why this verdict
Why Rush Enterprises (RUSHA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 10.7%, demonstrating consistent operational discipline in truck dealership management despite a challenging commercial vehicle cycle. Earnings | Earnings per share continues to exceed analyst estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe commercial vehicle dealership business is highly cyclical, and the current beat streak may reflect a favorable period of service and parts demand that reverses as the truck fleet ages differently or new truck orders decline. | ||
The company's operations are heavily concentrated in PACCAR and Peterbilt brand vehicles, creating a supplier concentration risk where any disruption to this relationship or to PACCAR's manufacturing capacity could materially impact inventory availability and sales. Bear case | PACCAR truck production volumes remain within 10% of current levels over the next 12 months, sustaining adequate vehicle inventory for dealership operations. | →Stable |
| CounterPACCAR is a dominant, financially strong manufacturer, meaning the concentration risk is primarily tied to industry-wide commercial vehicle cycle dynamics rather than counterparty failure risk. | ||
Free cash flow conversion runs at 139% of net income, indicating the business generates more cash than reported earnings, which provides financial flexibility and confirms the quality of reported income in a capital-intensive dealership model. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 100% over the next 12 months, sustaining cash generation above reported earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is declining at negative 9% year over year, suggesting volume headwinds in new truck sales that could pressure the free cash flow generation if service revenue does not fully offset the new vehicle revenue decline. | ||
Strong positive momentum with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 7.2 is counterbalanced by only 1.6% upside remaining to the analyst consensus target of $71.19, creating a situation where momentum and valuation are in tension. Momentum breakdown | Analyst consensus target rises above $78, more than 11% above the current $70.05, within 12 months as earnings beats support upward estimate revisions. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only 1.6% upside to consensus and declining revenue of negative 9%, analysts are unlikely to raise targets meaningfully unless the commercial vehicle cycle turns, leaving momentum as the only support for continued price appreciation. | ||
The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 10.7%, demonstrating consistent operational discipline in truck dealership management despite a challenging commercial vehicle cycle.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share continues to exceed analyst estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat track record.
CounterThe commercial vehicle dealership business is highly cyclical, and the current beat streak may reflect a favorable period of service and parts demand that reverses as the truck fleet ages differently or new truck orders decline.
The company's operations are heavily concentrated in PACCAR and Peterbilt brand vehicles, creating a supplier concentration risk where any disruption to this relationship or to PACCAR's manufacturing capacity could materially impact inventory availability and sales.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- PACCAR truck production volumes remain within 10% of current levels over the next 12 months, sustaining adequate vehicle inventory for dealership operations.
CounterPACCAR is a dominant, financially strong manufacturer, meaning the concentration risk is primarily tied to industry-wide commercial vehicle cycle dynamics rather than counterparty failure risk.
Free cash flow conversion runs at 139% of net income, indicating the business generates more cash than reported earnings, which provides financial flexibility and confirms the quality of reported income in a capital-intensive dealership model.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 100% over the next 12 months, sustaining cash generation above reported earnings.
CounterRevenue is declining at negative 9% year over year, suggesting volume headwinds in new truck sales that could pressure the free cash flow generation if service revenue does not fully offset the new vehicle revenue decline.
Strong positive momentum with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 7.2 is counterbalanced by only 1.6% upside remaining to the analyst consensus target of $71.19, creating a situation where momentum and valuation are in tension.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target rises above $78, more than 11% above the current $70.05, within 12 months as earnings beats support upward estimate revisions.
CounterWith only 1.6% upside to consensus and declining revenue of negative 9%, analysts are unlikely to raise targets meaningfully unless the commercial vehicle cycle turns, leaving momentum as the only support for continued price appreciation.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Rush Enterprises Class A has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with strong momentum and excellent free cash flow conversion at 139% of net income, but declining revenue of negative 9%, supplier concentration risk from PACCAR/Peterbilt dependence, and only 1.6% upside to the analyst target leave limited room for upside from current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.6 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 139% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.3 |
| EPS growth | 3.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -9%
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.9 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $577,854 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.6 |
| days to cover | 1.5 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 104.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.26
Upside
-2.7%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 23d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 6.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.26 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.3, Value at 5.9, and Sentiment at 5.8; the weakest are Growth at 1.7, Peer rank at 3.7, and Quality at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P2Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifRevenue decline rate worsens to more than negative 15% year over year for at least 2 consecutive quarters, indicating accelerating volume erosion that threatens free cash flow generation.
- P3Paccar Peterbilt Supplier Concentration
Trip ifPACCAR commercial truck production falls below 80% of current levels, reducing available inventory by more than 20% for the dealership network.
- P4Momentum At Exhausted Upside
Trip ifMomentum score drops below 5.0, more than 2 points below the current 7.2, indicating the positive technical trend has reversed.