Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.6 |
| PEG | 3.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.8x
- ▸PEG: 3.11
RSG · Why this verdict
Why Republic Services (RSG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Republic Services has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with best-in-class margins among waste management peers, but a confirmed death cross in its moving averages and a price above the options max pain level of $160 suggest near-term downside pressure that offsets the otherwise solid earnings track record.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company ranks at the top of its peer group for margins, which alongside a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9, reflects the pricing power and contract-based revenue stability of a large-scale waste management franchise. Peer-rank breakdown | Operating margin remains above the peer group median over the next 12 months, sustaining the best-in-class ranking. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth is weak at a low single-digit rate, and the absence of a clearly identified competitive moat suggests that margin leadership could narrow as competitors invest in infrastructure to match service quality. | ||
Republic Services beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 4.8%, demonstrating consistent operational discipline and reliable execution against consensus estimates. Earnings | Earnings per share continues to exceed analyst estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat track record. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAverage surprise of 4.8% is modest, and the waste management sector's regulated pricing environment limits the degree to which the company can consistently outperform well-informed analyst estimates over time. | ||
The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, confirmed by a declining 200-day trend of negative 1.9% per month, indicating the stock is in a confirmed longer-term downtrend despite short-term MACD improvement. Momentum breakdown | The 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, signaling a recovery from the current downtrend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConfirmed downtrends with falling moving average slopes historically require either a fundamental catalyst or an extended consolidation period before reversal, and weak revenue growth provides limited fundamental catalyst. | ||
The current price of $208 is significantly above the options market max pain level of $160, a gap of approximately 30%, indicating that options market participants have positioned for meaningfully lower prices. Risk breakdown | Price remains above $180, more than $20 above the options max pain level, over the next 6 months without a sharp pullback driven by options-related selling pressure. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA price more than 30% above max pain is a substantial divergence; while max pain is not a deterministic predictor, the elevated put-to-call ratio of near-zero combined with this divergence may indicate hedging demand that weighs on price. | ||
The company ranks at the top of its peer group for margins, which alongside a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9, reflects the pricing power and contract-based revenue stability of a large-scale waste management franchise.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin remains above the peer group median over the next 12 months, sustaining the best-in-class ranking.
CounterRevenue growth is weak at a low single-digit rate, and the absence of a clearly identified competitive moat suggests that margin leadership could narrow as competitors invest in infrastructure to match service quality.
Republic Services beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 4.8%, demonstrating consistent operational discipline and reliable execution against consensus estimates.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share continues to exceed analyst estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat track record.
CounterAverage surprise of 4.8% is modest, and the waste management sector's regulated pricing environment limits the degree to which the company can consistently outperform well-informed analyst estimates over time.
The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, confirmed by a declining 200-day trend of negative 1.9% per month, indicating the stock is in a confirmed longer-term downtrend despite short-term MACD improvement.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, signaling a recovery from the current downtrend.
CounterConfirmed downtrends with falling moving average slopes historically require either a fundamental catalyst or an extended consolidation period before reversal, and weak revenue growth provides limited fundamental catalyst.
The current price of $208 is significantly above the options market max pain level of $160, a gap of approximately 30%, indicating that options market participants have positioned for meaningfully lower prices.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above $180, more than $20 above the options max pain level, over the next 6 months without a sharp pullback driven by options-related selling pressure.
CounterA price more than 30% above max pain is a substantial divergence; while max pain is not a deterministic predictor, the elevated put-to-call ratio of near-zero combined with this divergence may indicate hedging demand that weighs on price.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.1 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 8.1 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 2.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 7.2 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $201,908,537 (0.303% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.7 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸Above max pain $175
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.34
Upside
+1.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 14d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.34 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 8.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Growth at 3.3, and Value at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P2Best In Class Margins Peer Rank
Trip ifOperating margin drops below the peer group median by more than 2 percentage points, indicating loss of the best-in-class positioning.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope declines by more than 3% per month for 3 consecutive months, indicating the downtrend is deepening rather than stabilizing.
- P4Price Above Max Pain Options Risk
Trip ifPrice falls below $180, more than $28 below the current $208 price, suggesting the options market max pain gravity is pulling the stock lower.