Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
RNST · Why this verdict
Why Renasant (RNST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Real estate collateral secures 84.6% of total loans and commercial real estate, construction, and commercial-and-industrial loans together represent 75.1% of the portfolio, creating a highly correlated credit book that could suffer disproportionate losses if commercial real estate values decline or interest coverage ratios weaken. Bear case | Loan portfolio diversification improves toward a maximum of 70% real-estate-secured exposure within 12 months as underwriting standards tighten new originations toward less concentrated sectors. | →Stable |
| CounterCommunity and regional banks in the Southeast US structurally maintain higher commercial real estate concentrations relative to money-center banks; the concentration reflects the local economy rather than poor underwriting discipline. | ||
Earnings grew 60% year-over-year and Renasant ranks as the industry growth leader in its regional bank peer group, supported by revenue growth of similar magnitude reflecting the benefits of its merger integration and loan book expansion. Growth breakdown | Earnings growth remains above 20% year-over-year for the next four quarters as merger cost synergies continue to convert into bottom-line leverage. | →Stable |
| CounterBanking earnings growth of 60% is often driven by credit loss reversals or one-time merger accounting items rather than sustainable organic improvement; the trailing growth rate may overstate the run-rate earnings power. | ||
The stock has already reached analyst consensus price targets with implied upside of -5.4%, meaning new buyers at $41.89 are paying full value with no buffer against negative surprises from the credit-concentrated loan portfolio. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward to above $48 within 12 months as the growth outlook is upgraded following additional earnings beats. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank price targets typically lag the earnings revision cycle; a continued beat streak could force rapid target upgrades that retroactively justify buying at current prices. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross with all moving averages aligned positively, RSI at 55, MACD bullish, and volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume), providing strong technical support for maintaining the existing uptrend. V9 | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average for at least the next 6 months and the golden cross pattern remains intact, confirming the breakout is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical breakouts in regional banks are frequently driven by sector-wide interest rate sentiment shifts rather than company-specific strength, making them vulnerable to macro reversals unrelated to loan book fundamentals. | ||
Real estate collateral secures 84.6% of total loans and commercial real estate, construction, and commercial-and-industrial loans together represent 75.1% of the portfolio, creating a highly correlated credit book that could suffer disproportionate losses if commercial real estate values decline or interest coverage ratios weaken.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Loan portfolio diversification improves toward a maximum of 70% real-estate-secured exposure within 12 months as underwriting standards tighten new originations toward less concentrated sectors.
CounterCommunity and regional banks in the Southeast US structurally maintain higher commercial real estate concentrations relative to money-center banks; the concentration reflects the local economy rather than poor underwriting discipline.
Earnings grew 60% year-over-year and Renasant ranks as the industry growth leader in its regional bank peer group, supported by revenue growth of similar magnitude reflecting the benefits of its merger integration and loan book expansion.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth remains above 20% year-over-year for the next four quarters as merger cost synergies continue to convert into bottom-line leverage.
CounterBanking earnings growth of 60% is often driven by credit loss reversals or one-time merger accounting items rather than sustainable organic improvement; the trailing growth rate may overstate the run-rate earnings power.
The stock has already reached analyst consensus price targets with implied upside of -5.4%, meaning new buyers at $41.89 are paying full value with no buffer against negative surprises from the credit-concentrated loan portfolio.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward to above $48 within 12 months as the growth outlook is upgraded following additional earnings beats.
CounterRegional bank price targets typically lag the earnings revision cycle; a continued beat streak could force rapid target upgrades that retroactively justify buying at current prices.
The stock has formed a golden cross with all moving averages aligned positively, RSI at 55, MACD bullish, and volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume), providing strong technical support for maintaining the existing uptrend.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average for at least the next 6 months and the golden cross pattern remains intact, confirming the breakout is durable.
CounterTechnical breakouts in regional banks are frequently driven by sector-wide interest rate sentiment shifts rather than company-specific strength, making them vulnerable to macro reversals unrelated to loan book fundamentals.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Renasant Corporation is a regional bank with 60% year-over-year earnings growth, a PEG ratio of 0.24, and strong technical momentum, but extremely high real-estate-and-commercial loan concentration at 84.6% of the loan book creates meaningful downside exposure to a credit cycle turn.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.3 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 60% YoY
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $618,880 (0.016% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 9.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 8.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 341.00
- ▸Above max pain $25
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 223.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.21
Upside
-8.0%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.6, Peer rank at 4.7, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Loan Concentration Commercial Real Estate
Trip ifNon-performing loans rise above 2% of total loans, indicating credit stress is materializing in the concentrated commercial real estate portfolio.
- P2Strong Earnings Growth 60 Pct
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 10% year-over-year in any reported quarter, indicating the high base from merger-driven gains is creating a comparisons headwind.
- P3Price At Target Negative Entry
Trip ifPrice rises above $46, more than 10% above the current $41.89, while analyst targets remain below $44, expanding the premium to fair value beyond 5%.
- P4Breakout Momentum Technical Strength
Trip ifPrice drops below $38, more than 9% below the current $41.89, breaking the golden cross support and signaling the breakout has failed.