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RLJRLJ Lodging TrustSell4.6·$11.73+0.34%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

RLJ Lodging Trust is a hotel REIT trading above analyst price targets with negative implied upside and below-average business quality, though its strong earnings beat history and excellent free cash flow conversion offer some floor support for existing holders.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Above Analyst Target Negative UpsideStable
  • Strong Earnings Beat Versus Low ExpectationsStable
  • High Short Interest Quality FloorStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Hotel & Motel

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

RLJ Lodging Trust is a self-advised REIT that owns 93 premium-branded, focused-service and compact full-service hotels with about 20,800 rooms across 23 states and Washington, D.C., with roughly 89.3% of its portfolio operating under Marriott, Hilton, or Hyatt brands. The... Read more

$11.73-0.7% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#6 of 12 REIT - Hotel & Motel
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield10.94%
IncomeYield5.09%(5y avg 3.52%)Payout6000.00%
Stop $11.16Target $11.70(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$10.43-11.1%11 analysts
$11.70our TP
$11.73price
$10.43mean
$9
$13

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About RLJ Lodging Trust

About RLJ Lodging Trust

RLJ Lodging Trust owned 93 hotels with about 20,800 rooms across 23 states and the District of Columbia as of December 31, 2025, with roughly 89.3% of properties operating under Marriott, Hilton, or Hyatt brands. The five largest metro concentrations - Northern California, Southern California, South Florida, Chicago, and Houston - together accounted for roughly 45.9% of total rooms, and the company held debt of approximately $2.2 billion at year-end, 69.2% of it fixed or effectively fixed.

RLJ generates revenue by leasing its 93 hotels to taxable REIT subsidiaries (TRSs), which in turn engage independent third-party managers - most notably Aimbridge Hospitality (26 hotels) and Hilton (21 hotels) - to run day-to-day operations, set room rates, and collect revenue under individual management agreements; the TRS structure lets RLJ record TRS dividend distributions as REIT income while retaining approval rights over key hotel staffing positions such as general managers and directors of sales. Twelve consolidated hotels and one unconsolidated hotel sit on ground leases rather than owned land, including one at Wyndham San Diego Bayside expiring in 2029. As a REIT, RLJ must distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders, financing acquisitions and renovations instead through its unsecured credit facility, mortgage debt, and equity or debt offerings, with a debt profile weighted toward unsecured, fixed-rate obligations supplemented by interest rate swaps.

Show full overview

RLJ's own filing frames the three-brand dependence directly: 83 of its 93 hotels carry Marriott, Hilton, or Hyatt flags, so a deterioration in any one franchisor's brand reputation, or a breakdown in the underlying franchise relationship, could impair the value of dozens of properties at once rather than a single asset. The same concentration runs through hotel management, where just two operators, Aimbridge and Hilton, run every one of RLJ's 93 hotels, leaving replacement risk elevated if either manager became financially unable or unwilling to perform under its agreements.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Hotel & Motel

From RLJ Lodging Trust's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — RLJ Lodging Trust

Generated 2026-07-06T12:41:41Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt (89.3%)
Target reached (-23.0% upside)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-321.2
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn1.8%
ROE1.1%
Rev Growth3.6%
Beta1.10
Dividend5.09%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.46bullish
IV82%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyMarriott, Hilton and Hyatt89%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 89.3% of our hotel properties operating under existing relationships with Marriott, Hilton or Hyatt'
  • LOWGeographicNorthern California13%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our hotels located in the Northern California, Southern California, South Florida, Chicago, Illinois, and Houston, Texas metropolitan areas accounted for approximately 13.4%'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyAimbridge Hospitality28%
    10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, all of our hotel properties had individual management agreements, 26 of which were with Aimbridge Hospitality ("Aimbridge") and 21 of which were with Hilton.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved the RLJ Lodging Trust 2026 Equity Incentive Plan at the April 24, 2026 Annual Meeting, replacing the 2021 Plan. Routine equity-plan approval; no executive departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-30Item 5.07LOW
    RLJ Lodging Trust held its Annual Meeting on April 24, 2026, where shareholders voted on the 2026 Equity Incentive Plan among other proposals. No adverse or contested results cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.4
Net Margin
0.9
Roa
1.1
Gross Margin
1.4
Current Ratio
2.8
Operating Margin
3.3
Moat
3.8
Piotroski F
5.6
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 787% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.4
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.11Resistance $11.94

Price Targets

$11
$12
A.Upside-0.3%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-23.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RLJ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.73: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.16. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RLJ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.70 (-0.7% upside). Prior stop was $11.16. Stop-loss: $11.16.

What are the risks of investing in RLJ?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt (89.3%); Target reached (-23.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is RLJ overvalued or undervalued?

RLJ Lodging Trust trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -321.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RLJ?

18 analysts cover RLJ with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $10.

What does RLJ Lodging Trust do?RLJ Lodging Trust is a self-advised REIT that owns 93 premium-branded, focused-service and compact full-service hotels...

RLJ Lodging Trust is a self-advised REIT that owns 93 premium-branded, focused-service and compact full-service hotels with about 20,800 rooms across 23 states and Washington, D.C., with roughly 89.3% of its portfolio operating under Marriott, Hilton, or Hyatt brands. The company earns rental income by leasing its hotels to taxable REIT subsidiaries, which engage independent managers - primarily Aimbridge Hospitality and Hilton - to run day-to-day hotel operations, and distributes at least 90% of REIT taxable income to shareholders.

Related stocks: HST (Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc.) · DRH (Diamondrock Hospitality Company) · RHP (Ryman Hospitality Properties, I) · SHO (Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. ) · XHR (Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.)
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