Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.27
- ▸Attractively valued
RLGT · Why this verdict
Why Radiant Logistics (RLGT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Radiant Logistics is a cheap small-cap (forward P/E 16.0x, PEG 0.27) with a strong earnings-beat record, but thin margins, 57% FCF/net income, 4.1x D/E and a -15.2% revenue decline keep quality at 3.3/10.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is weak at 3.3/10: only 57% of net income converts to free cash flow, margins are thin, and the company is flagged as below the quality floor of 4.0. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion improves toward 80% of net income and the quality score rises toward 4.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 shows the financial trend is actually improving, so low quality may reflect low-margin freight brokerage economics rather than deterioration. | ||
Radiant has beaten EPS estimates in most recent quarters with no misses, averaging a 59% positive surprise over the last four reported quarters. Earnings | EPS keeps meeting or beating consensus through the next four quarters, including the report due 2026-11-09. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEPS estimates are tiny (about $0.08-$0.11), so large percentage surprises come from small absolute dollar beats and may not signal real earnings power. | ||
Two value-trap signals are flagged: revenue is declining 15.2% YoY and leverage is high at a debt-to-equity of 4.1. Bear case | Revenue growth returns to positive YoY and leverage stops rising over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRecent quarterly revenue of $261M is above the $221M of a year earlier, so the reported decline may be a trailing-period artifact rather than a current trend. | ||
The stock looks attractively valued with a forward P/E of 16.0x and a PEG of 0.27, implying the market under-prices expected earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth delivers on forecasts so the PEG stays below 1.0 as the share price rises. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA low PEG depends on forecast growth that may not materialize given falling trailing revenue and weak quality, making it a classic value-trap setup. | ||
The stock is oversold at an RSI of 25 while still above its 200-day average, with rising on-balance volume pointing to accumulation. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers from oversold levels and the price holds above its 200-day average over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith reward-to-risk of only 1.3 at the current price and mixed technical signals, the oversold bounce may be limited and fail to hold. | ||
Business quality is weak at 3.3/10: only 57% of net income converts to free cash flow, margins are thin, and the company is flagged as below the quality floor of 4.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion improves toward 80% of net income and the quality score rises toward 4.0 over 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 shows the financial trend is actually improving, so low quality may reflect low-margin freight brokerage economics rather than deterioration.
Radiant has beaten EPS estimates in most recent quarters with no misses, averaging a 59% positive surprise over the last four reported quarters.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS keeps meeting or beating consensus through the next four quarters, including the report due 2026-11-09.
CounterEPS estimates are tiny (about $0.08-$0.11), so large percentage surprises come from small absolute dollar beats and may not signal real earnings power.
Two value-trap signals are flagged: revenue is declining 15.2% YoY and leverage is high at a debt-to-equity of 4.1.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth returns to positive YoY and leverage stops rising over the next 12 months.
CounterRecent quarterly revenue of $261M is above the $221M of a year earlier, so the reported decline may be a trailing-period artifact rather than a current trend.
The stock looks attractively valued with a forward P/E of 16.0x and a PEG of 0.27, implying the market under-prices expected earnings growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth delivers on forecasts so the PEG stays below 1.0 as the share price rises.
CounterA low PEG depends on forecast growth that may not materialize given falling trailing revenue and weak quality, making it a classic value-trap setup.
The stock is oversold at an RSI of 25 while still above its 200-day average, with rising on-balance volume pointing to accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers from oversold levels and the price holds above its 200-day average over the next 12 months.
CounterWith reward-to-risk of only 1.3 at the current price and mixed technical signals, the oversold bounce may be limited and fail to hold.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.9 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 4.5 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 57% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.8 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 6.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.67
Upside
+3.9%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.7<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 8.6 and asymmetric R:R of 0.67.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.6, Catalyst at 7.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 3.3, Peer rank at 5.3, and Momentum at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Thin Margin Weak Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 40% from the current 57%.
- P3Revenue Decline Value Trap Risk
Trip ifRevenue decline widens to more than 20% YoY from the current -15.2%.
- P4Low Valuation Vs Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.27.
- P5Oversold In Uptrend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.0 from the current 5.4.