Should you buy Radiant Logistics (RLGT)?
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Engine methodology range
RLGT currently trades above the base anchor, in the upper half of the engine methodology range.
Engine methodology range — mechanically derived from pipeline gate outputs + peer-multiple inputs. Not an analyst price target. JSON-LD emission gated pending counsel review.
What the engine is tracking
- Thin Margin Weak Quality→Stable
- Consistent Earnings Beats↑Improving
- Revenue Decline Value Trap Risk↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 5 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Thin Margin Weak Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 40% from the current 57%.
- P3Revenue Decline Value Trap Risk
Trip ifRevenue decline widens to more than 20% YoY from the current -15.2%.
- P4Low Valuation Vs Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.27.
- P5Oversold In Uptrend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.0 from the current 5.4.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Radiant Logistics, Inc. (RLGT) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 6.3/10 at $9.00. The reward-to-risk gate failed (0.7 vs threshold 1.5), producing a SELL engine output.
The dominant failed gate is reward-to-risk at 0.7 vs threshold 1.5. SELL flips back toward HOLD if reward-to-risk recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5.
On the bear side: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-15.2% YoY), High leverage (D/E 4.1). Active engine warnings: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0), Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-15.2% YoY), High leverage (D/E 4.1), V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $9.00, with structural invalidation at $8.52. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 0.67 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: AVOID at this asymmetry level (no fresh-capital deployment).
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates RLGT — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bear case
- ▸Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
- ▸Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-15.2% YoY), High leverage (D/E 4.1)