Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 7.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.93
- ▸Attractively valued
RJF · Why this verdict
Why Raymond James Financial (RJF) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Raymond James Financial is a high-quality wealth management franchise with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a confirmed wide economic moat, and consistent earnings beats, but the stock has already exceeded analyst consensus targets and sits in a confirmed short-term downtrend that limits near-term entry attractiveness.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Raymond James carries a confirmed wide economic moat score of 7.6 out of 10 alongside a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, compounder-quality designation, and volume accumulation in the market, reflecting a durable competitive position in wealth management services. Quality breakdown | Moat quality indicators, including return on equity and operating margins, remain strong with Piotroski F-Score staying at 8 or above over the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWealth management companies with wide moats can still face significant revenue pressure during market downturns when assets under management decline and transaction volumes fall. | ||
At a forward P/E of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of 0.87, the company is attractively valued for a wide-moat wealth manager, and positive LLM news sentiment of +0.40 and analyst consensus buy ratings support the fundamental attractiveness. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands toward 14x within 12 months as the market recognizes the combination of moat quality and earnings consistency. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already trading above analyst consensus price targets, meaning a further multiple expansion would require analysts to raise targets materially, which is uncertain given the confirmed downtrend in price. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with consistent beats of 0.54%, 0.90%, and 9.97%, demonstrating stable and predictable earnings delivery around consensus expectations. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with EPS remaining above $2.50 per quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe one miss in July 2025 saw a -7.5% shortfall, and the narrow beats in the most recent two quarters (0.54% and 0.90%) suggest earnings have converged very close to consensus, leaving little buffer for positive surprise. | ||
Despite strong fundamental quality, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average slope declining at -1.1% per month and volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) insufficient to reverse the price trend. Momentum breakdown | The stock recovers above a flat to positive 200-day moving average slope within 6 months as fundamental quality reasserts itself. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDeath cross patterns in high-quality wealth managers tend to resolve within 3 to 6 months, and the improving MACD trend and rising on-balance volume suggest a reversal may be forming. | ||
Raymond James carries a confirmed wide economic moat score of 7.6 out of 10 alongside a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, compounder-quality designation, and volume accumulation in the market, reflecting a durable competitive position in wealth management services.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Moat quality indicators, including return on equity and operating margins, remain strong with Piotroski F-Score staying at 8 or above over the next 4 quarters.
CounterWealth management companies with wide moats can still face significant revenue pressure during market downturns when assets under management decline and transaction volumes fall.
At a forward P/E of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of 0.87, the company is attractively valued for a wide-moat wealth manager, and positive LLM news sentiment of +0.40 and analyst consensus buy ratings support the fundamental attractiveness.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands toward 14x within 12 months as the market recognizes the combination of moat quality and earnings consistency.
CounterThe stock is already trading above analyst consensus price targets, meaning a further multiple expansion would require analysts to raise targets materially, which is uncertain given the confirmed downtrend in price.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with consistent beats of 0.54%, 0.90%, and 9.97%, demonstrating stable and predictable earnings delivery around consensus expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with EPS remaining above $2.50 per quarter.
CounterThe one miss in July 2025 saw a -7.5% shortfall, and the narrow beats in the most recent two quarters (0.54% and 0.90%) suggest earnings have converged very close to consensus, leaving little buffer for positive surprise.
Despite strong fundamental quality, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average slope declining at -1.1% per month and volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) insufficient to reverse the price trend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock recovers above a flat to positive 200-day moving average slope within 6 months as fundamental quality reasserts itself.
CounterDeath cross patterns in high-quality wealth managers tend to resolve within 3 to 6 months, and the improving MACD trend and rising on-balance volume suggest a reversal may be forming.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.8 |
| Net margin | 7.6 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 3.8 |
| implied vol | 8.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $169.30 has reached target $168.98. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (7)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:95d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.36
Upside
-5.0%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.5) with weak momentum (3.3)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 8.5 and growth 8.2 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of -0.36 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.5, Growth at 8.2, and Value at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Technical at 4.6, and Peer rank at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Economic Moat Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 or operating margin falls below 10% in any reported period.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEarnings per share falls below $2.50 in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Technical Risk
Trip if200-day moving average slope remains negative for more than 9 consecutive months.
- P4Attractive Valuation Metrics
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 9x or analyst consensus price targets decline below $140.